NYJJets
2-5
22
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
8 mph
25
NEPatriots
1-6
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
6
7
3
6
22
Patriots
7
0
7
11
25
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
250
Total Plays
58
64
Yards / Play
5.8
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.02
Passing Yards
224
138
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.00
Rushing Yards
112
112
Rush Attempts
28
31
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
40%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-19
Sack EPA
-1.45
-3.90
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
55
50
Penalty EPA
-4.90
-6.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model70.9%
Spread Pick
Patriots+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-121
Home nfelo
1,345
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+24.2
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+3.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-154.3
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
D. Maye
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
24
21
Passing Yards / Game
5
1
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22
EPA
EPA / Play
19
26
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
21
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
6
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
21
26
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17
EPA
EPA / Play
28
24
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
25
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
29
7
Turnover EPA / Game
9
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
30
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U