NYJJets
2-7
14
TBD
Gillette Stadium
39°F
9 mph
27
NEPatriots
8-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
39°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
0
7
0
14
Patriots
0
14
7
6
27
Spread
-12.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
336
Total Plays
57
62
Yards / Play
4.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.16
Passing Yards
105
271
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.36
Rushing Yards
140
65
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
5
16
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
57%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.41
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-10
Sack EPA
-3.20
-2.09
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
62
--
Penalty EPA
-7.10
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model81.3%
Spread Pick
Jets+12.5
Expected Value
+0.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+147
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+23.0
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+32.2
Home QB Adjustment
+17.1
Away QB Adjustment
-15.1
Market Regression
+20.9
Final Difference
254.8
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-15.1
D. Maye
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
27
Rushing Yards / Game
4
1
EPA
EPA / Play
23
8
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
20
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
6
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
29
16
Turnover EPA / Game
12
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
2
RZ Efficiency
23
31
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
1
14
Rushing Yards / Game
20
23
EPA
EPA / Play
6
28
EPA / Pass
1
27
EPA / Rush
28
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
9
32
Fumbles / Game
26
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
17
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U