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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ patriots week 11, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
2-7
14
TBD
Gillette Stadium
39°F
9 mph
27
NEPatriots
8-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
39°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
0
7
0
14
Patriots
0
14
7
6
27

Spread

NE logo
-12.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
245
336
Total Plays
57
62
Yards / Play
4.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.16
Passing Yards
105
271
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.36
Rushing Yards
140
65
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
5
16
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
57%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.41
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-10
Sack EPA
-3.20
-2.09
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
62
--
Penalty EPA
-7.10
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model81.0%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+12.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.2%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+150
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,413
Home Field
+23.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+33.2
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
-19.0
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
251.6
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-19.0
Value
Ptile
10/06
-1.9
35
10/13
0.8
53
09/07
7.7
93
09/14
-6.7
9
09/29
8.4
95
10/05
0.9
57
10/12
-13.1
0
10/19
-8.1
5
10/26
2.6
69
11/09
-6.5
10
D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Value
Ptile
09/07
-2.5
34
09/14
4.6
81
09/21
1.9
64
09/28
4.9
83
10/05
-0.9
43
10/12
5.6
87
10/19
5.8
88
10/26
2.9
72
11/02
-3.9
24
11/09
-1.1
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jets logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
32
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8

EPA

EPA / Play
27
9
EPA / Pass
29
11
EPA / Rush
24
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
7
Interceptions / Game
23
19
Fumbles / Game
28
12
Turnover EPA / Game
10
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
12
4th Down Efficiency
28
2
RZ Efficiency
31
32
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Patriots logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
4
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
15
Rushing Yards / Game
13
27

EPA

EPA / Play
4
30
EPA / Pass
1
31
EPA / Rush
23
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
2
Interceptions / Game
7
32
Fumbles / Game
21
29
Turnover EPA / Game
21
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
1
32
RZ Efficiency
22
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
12
W
W
O
09/07
-2
L
W
O
09/14
-20
L
L
U
09/21
-2
L
W
O
09/29
-6
L
L
O
10/05
-15
L
L
O
10/12
-2
L
W
U
10/19
-7
L
L
U
10/26
1
W
W
O
11/09
7
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
-7
L
L
U
09/14
6
W
W
O
09/21
-7
L
L
U
09/28
29
W
W
O
10/05
3
W
W
U
10/12
6
W
W
U
10/19
18
W
W
O
10/26
19
W
W
O
11/02
1
W
L
O
11/09
5
W
W
O