NYJJets
9-2
3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
27°F
16 mph
45
NEPatriots
9-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
27°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
0
0
3
Patriots
17
7
7
14
45
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
405
Total Plays
65
58
Yards / Play
4.6
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.47
Passing Yards
149
304
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
10.5
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.72
Rushing Yards
152
101
Rush Attempts
31
26
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.20
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-15
-22
Sack EPA
-1.06
-3.31
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
56
--
Penalty EPA
-5.08
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.3
Home QB Adjustment
+19.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
8
Yards / Game
12
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
4
13
EPA
EPA / Play
15
20
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
6
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
10
2
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
28
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
32
4th Down Efficiency
21
25
RZ Efficiency
28
22
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
5
Yards / Game
7
3
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
9
5
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
2
9
EPA / Rush
2
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
29
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
32
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
17
12
RZ Efficiency
9
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U