NYJJets
4-10
3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
6 mph
41
NEPatriots
12-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
0
3
3
Patriots
10
17
7
7
41
Spread
-17
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
239
325
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
4.3
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.49
+0.21
Passing Yards
128
211
Comp/Att
8/24(33%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.64
+0.42
Rushing Yards
111
114
Rush Attempts
29
40
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
9%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
1
11
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.35
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-9
Sack EPA
-2.57
-1.56
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
77
20
Penalty EPA
-14.31
-1.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-16.5
Current
-17.0
Model
-17.0
Win Probability
Market90.9%
Model90.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+410
Home nfelo
1,670
Away nfelo
1,398
Home Field
+31.6
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+106.8
Home QB Adjustment
+47.7
Away QB Adjustment
-59.1
Market Regression
+10.3
Final Difference
399.8
Model Spread
-17.0
Quarterbacks
B. Petty
Proj. Value
-5.1
Team Elo Adj
-59.1
Value
Ptile
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+47.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
26
8
Passing Yards / Game
15
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3
EPA
EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
31
8
EPA / Rush
9
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
27
Interceptions / Game
32
12
Fumbles / Game
16
10
Turnover EPA / Game
3
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
4
4th Down Efficiency
26
7
RZ Efficiency
32
12
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
4
11
Passing Yards / Game
8
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
13
EPA
EPA / Play
2
23
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
16
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
16
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
14
27
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
1
RZ Efficiency
8
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U