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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ patriots week 18, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
6-10
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
14 mph
3
NEPatriots
4-12
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
3
0
11
17
Patriots
0
3
0
0
3

Spread

NYJ logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
28.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
256
119
Total Plays
64
58
Yards / Play
4.0
2.1
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.58
Passing Yards
69
31
Comp/Att
8/20(40%)
12/30(40%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
1.0
EPA / Pass
-0.55
-0.93
Rushing Yards
187
88
Rush Attempts
43
21
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
13
6
Passing 1st downs
3
3
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
20%
7%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-1.73
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-1
-57
Sack EPA
-1.45
-12.02
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
+0.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,427
Home Field
+25.3
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.2
Home QB Adjustment
-6.5
Away QB Adjustment
-15.7
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-15.7
Value
Ptile
12/10
-1.0
45
12/14
-9.0
5
09/16
-8.3
8
11/07
-0.4
50
11/14
-1.8
39
11/21
0.5
57
11/25
-3.3
28
11/27
-4.2
22
12/24
-2.4
33
12/28
3.4
72
B. Zappe headshot

B. Zappe

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
Value
Ptile
10/09
-1.8
39
10/16
4.3
83
12/03
-8.4
7
12/07
3.2
71
12/17
-3.3
27
12/24
4.6
79
12/31
-3.9
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jets logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
29
14
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3

EPA

EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
32
20
EPA / Rush
32
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
32
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
32
5
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Patriots logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
30
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25

EPA

EPA / Play
32
4
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
22
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
11
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
1-8-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
3
W
P
U
11/06
-21
L
L
U
11/12
-4
L
L
U
11/19
-26
L
L
U
11/24
-21
L
L
O
12/03
-5
L
L
U
12/10
24
W
W
O
12/17
-30
L
L
U
12/24
2
W
L
O
12/28
-17
L
L
O
NE logo

Patriots

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
4
W
W
O
10/29
-14
L
L
O
11/05
-3
L
L
U
11/12
-4
L
L
U
11/26
-3
L
L
U
12/03
-6
L
L
U
12/07
3
W
W
O
12/17
-10
L
P
O
12/24
3
W
W
O
12/31
-6
L
W
O