NYJJets
6-10
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
14 mph
3
NEPatriots
4-12
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
3
0
11
17
Patriots
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
28.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
256
119
Total Plays
64
58
Yards / Play
4.0
2.1
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.58
Passing Yards
69
31
Comp/Att
8/20(40%)
12/30(40%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
1.0
EPA / Pass
-0.55
-0.93
Rushing Yards
187
88
Rush Attempts
43
21
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
6
Passing 1st downs
3
3
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
20%
7%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-1.73
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-1
-57
Sack EPA
-1.45
-12.02
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
+0.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+25.3
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
-6.6
Away QB Adjustment
-16.2
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-16.2
B. Zappe
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
14
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3
EPA
EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
32
20
EPA / Rush
32
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
32
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
32
5
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
30
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25
EPA
EPA / Play
32
4
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
22
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
11
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
1-8-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U