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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ raiders week 8, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
4-2
20
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
68°F
8 mph
34
OAKRaiders
3-3
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
68°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
3
7
7
20
Raiders
7
14
10
3
34

Spread

OAK logo
+3

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
366
451
Total Plays
71
61
Yards / Play
5.2
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.30
Passing Yards
292
--
Comp/Att
31/47(66%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.46
Rushing Yards
74
118
Rush Attempts
21
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
44%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.99
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-5.26
--
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
40
61
Penalty EPA
-1.19
-5.84

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model55.1%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+0
Home nfelo
1,419
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+18.5
Away QB Adjustment
+23.3
Market Regression
-7.2
Final Difference
-35.7
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+23.3
Value
Ptile
11/02
-2.7
31
11/30
15.5
100
12/07
-0.9
44
12/14
-4.4
24
09/13
0.1
51
09/21
2.1
65
09/27
-1.7
38
10/04
-0.7
47
10/18
6.9
90
10/25
3.5
76
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.5
Value
Ptile
12/07
7.7
90
12/14
-5.8
16
12/21
1.6
62
12/28
-7.2
10
09/13
-4.1
20
09/20
8.0
94
09/27
5.9
87
10/04
-2.8
31
10/11
-2.1
34
10/25
7.2
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Raiders Defense
Jets logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
10
22
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
13

EPA

EPA / Play
17
19
EPA / Pass
9
14
EPA / Rush
15
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
22
15
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
3
10
Raiders Offense vs Jets Defense
Raiders logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
24
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
9
Rushing Yards / Game
28
2

EPA

EPA / Play
19
4
EPA / Pass
21
9
EPA / Rush
20
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
31
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
12
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
27
21
RZ Efficiency
8
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-6
L
L
O
12/14
5
W
W
U
12/21
-1
L
W
U
12/28
13
W
W
O
09/13
21
W
W
O
09/21
13
W
W
U
09/27
-7
L
L
U
10/04
13
W
W
U
10/18
14
W
W
O
10/25
-7
L
P
O
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
11
W
W
U
12/14
-18
L
L
O
12/21
2
W
W
O
12/28
-33
L
L
O
09/13
-20
L
L
O
09/20
4
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
-2
L
L
U
10/11
-6
L
L
U
10/25
8
W
W
O