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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ rams week 11, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
3-6
27
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
13
LARRams
3-5
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
10
0
14
27
Rams
7
0
0
6
13

Spread

NYJ logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
289
281
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
4.4
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.29
Passing Yards
165
167
Comp/Att
16/21(76%)
23/45(51%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
3.7
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.32
Rushing Yards
124
114
Rush Attempts
41
20
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
17
15
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
47%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-16.92
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-12
-3
Sack EPA
-4.62
-7.27
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
20
--
Penalty EPA
-2.20
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+39
Home nfelo
1,394
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+33.1
Home QB Adjustment
+13.8
Away QB Adjustment
-19.3
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-19.3
Value
Ptile
01/01
-3.4
29
09/09
5.5
84
09/16
-4.9
19
09/23
-3.2
28
09/30
-9.9
2
10/08
-5.6
15
10/14
-2.0
36
10/21
-0.9
43
10/28
-4.1
24
11/11
-8.3
5
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Value
Ptile
12/12
-8.1
5
09/09
-2.8
32
09/16
6.2
88
09/23
-11.5
1
09/30
-3.9
25
10/04
-4.4
23
10/14
5.8
86
10/21
-1.9
37
10/28
-1.8
38
11/11
4.9
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Rams Defense
Jets logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
30
13
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
15

EPA

EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
30
9
EPA / Rush
15
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
20
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
28
32
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
13
4th Down Efficiency
17
6
RZ Efficiency
25
9
Rams Offense vs Jets Defense
Rams logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
22
6
Passing Yards / Game
16
1
Rushing Yards / Game
20
26

EPA

EPA / Play
25
11
EPA / Pass
18
11
EPA / Rush
22
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
9
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
12
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
19
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-2
L
L
U
09/09
20
W
W
O
09/16
-17
L
L
U
09/23
3
W
W
O
09/30
-34
L
L
U
10/08
-6
L
W
U
10/14
26
W
W
O
10/21
-3
L
W
O
10/28
-21
L
L
O
11/11
-21
L
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

3-6-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-7
L
W
O
09/09
-4
L
W
O
09/16
3
W
W
O
09/23
-17
L
L
U
09/30
6
W
W
U
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/21
-10
L
L
O
10/28
-38
L
L
O
11/11
0
T
W
O