NYJJets
3-6
27
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
013
LARRams
3-5
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
10
0
14
27
Rams
7
0
0
6
13
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
281
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
4.4
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.29
Passing Yards
165
167
Comp/Att
16/21(76%)
23/45(51%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
3.7
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.32
Rushing Yards
124
114
Rush Attempts
41
20
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
15
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
47%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-16.92
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-12
-3
Sack EPA
-4.62
-7.27
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
20
--
Penalty EPA
-2.20
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,397
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+33.1
Home QB Adjustment
+13.8
Away QB Adjustment
-19.3
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-19.3
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
30
13
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
15
EPA
EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
30
9
EPA / Rush
15
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
20
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
28
32
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
13
4th Down Efficiency
17
6
RZ Efficiency
25
9
Rams Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
22
6
Passing Yards / Game
16
1
Rushing Yards / Game
20
26
EPA
EPA / Play
25
11
EPA / Pass
18
11
EPA / Rush
22
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
9
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
12
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
19
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Rams
3-6-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U