NYJJets
5-8
21
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
33°F
3 mph
42
BALRavens
11-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
33°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
7
0
8
15
Ravens
13
8
14
7
42
Spread
-17
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
432
Total Plays
58
60
Yards / Play
5.4
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.21
Passing Yards
209
212
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.68
Rushing Yards
103
220
Rush Attempts
24
35
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
23
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.23
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-4.77
-0.68
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
94
--
Penalty EPA
-6.82
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-17.0
Model
-17.0
Win Probability
Market90.9%
Model90.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+420
Home nfelo
1,670
Away nfelo
1,335
Home Field
+63.7
Base HFA
+47.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.7
Home QB Adjustment
+48.7
Away QB Adjustment
+28.1
Market Regression
+21.5
Final Difference
399.8
Model Spread
-17.0
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+28.1
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+48.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
3
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7
EPA
EPA / Play
32
7
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
31
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
26
Interceptions / Game
23
16
Fumbles / Game
18
6
Turnover EPA / Game
16
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
14
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
21
7
Ravens Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
16
Yards / Game
2
7
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
1
2
EPA
EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
19
EPA / Rush
1
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
9
20
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
15
4th Down Efficiency
5
2
RZ Efficiency
5
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U