NYJJets
3-5
7
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
2 mph
28
SEASeahawks
5-4
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
1
0
0
0
1
Seahawks
7
7
0
14
28
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
185
363
Total Plays
50
67
Yards / Play
3.7
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.37
+0.04
Passing Yards
101
189
Comp/Att
12/25(48%)
13/20(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
9.4
EPA / Pass
-0.61
+0.39
Rushing Yards
84
174
Rush Attempts
22
43
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
20
Passing 1st downs
5
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
18%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-9.80
-6.79
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-31
-22
Sack EPA
-9.74
-11.24
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
35
45
Penalty EPA
-4.57
-5.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+101
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+22.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.9
Away QB Adjustment
-13.0
Market Regression
-7.1
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-13.0
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
27
2
Rushing Yards / Game
12
11
EPA
EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
15
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
28
6
Fumbles / Game
28
19
Turnover EPA / Game
3
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
21
4th Down Efficiency
17
2
RZ Efficiency
25
6
Seahawks Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
20
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
23
1
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26
EPA
EPA / Play
2
11
EPA / Pass
4
11
EPA / Rush
5
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
6
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
31
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
12
4th Down Efficiency
12
31
RZ Efficiency
15
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Seahawks
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U