NYJJets
2-4
15
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
60°F
4 mph
37
PITSteelers
4-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
60°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
8
0
0
15
Steelers
3
10
10
14
37
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
409
Total Plays
56
66
Yards / Play
5.8
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.22
Passing Yards
271
260
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.30
Rushing Yards
54
149
Rush Attempts
15
36
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
30%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.28
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-4
Sack EPA
-1.77
-1.07
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
50
36
Penalty EPA
-4.69
-3.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+2.0
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model45.4%
Spread Pick
Steelers+2.5
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
56.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+124
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+60.8
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.3
Home QB Adjustment
+28.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.8
Market Regression
-18.2
Final Difference
32.4
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+28.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
7
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
23
Rushing Yards / Game
31
11
EPA
EPA / Play
19
8
EPA / Pass
18
16
EPA / Rush
21
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
8
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
10
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
11
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
23
5
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
12
17
EPA
EPA / Play
16
24
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
28
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
17
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
30
RZ Efficiency
29
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U