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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ steelers week 7, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
2-4
15
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
60°F
4 mph
37
PITSteelers
4-2
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
60°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
8
0
0
15
Steelers
3
10
10
14
37

Spread

PIT logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
325
409
Total Plays
56
66
Yards / Play
5.8
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.22
Passing Yards
271
260
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.30
Rushing Yards
54
149
Rush Attempts
15
36
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
30%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.28
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-4
Sack EPA
-1.77
-1.07
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
50
36
Penalty EPA
-4.69
-3.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model45.5%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
56.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+60.8
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.3
Home QB Adjustment
+28.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.8
Market Regression
-18.1
Final Difference
31.2
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
Value
Ptile
12/25
-2.6
30
01/01
-0.4
49
01/08
-4.7
20
09/11
-7.0
11
09/09
-2.9
28
09/15
-0.6
44
09/19
6.4
86
09/29
-4.8
17
10/06
-7.3
7
10/14
1.6
60
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+28.1
Value
Ptile
10/12
-8.8
6
10/22
2.7
68
10/29
-2.8
30
11/13
2.8
68
11/19
2.2
65
11/26
2.8
68
12/03
-5.2
18
12/10
-1.3
41
12/16
-1.4
40
12/24
1.3
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Jets logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
7
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
23
Rushing Yards / Game
31
11

EPA

EPA / Play
19
8
EPA / Pass
18
16
EPA / Rush
21
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
8
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
10
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
11
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Steelers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
23
5
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
12
17

EPA

EPA / Play
16
24
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
28
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
17
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
30
RZ Efficiency
29
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-30
L
L
U
12/24
2
W
L
O
12/28
-17
L
L
O
01/07
14
W
W
U
09/09
-13
L
L
O
09/15
7
W
W
U
09/19
21
W
W
U
09/29
-1
L
L
U
10/06
-6
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
23
W
W
O
12/31
7
W
W
O
01/06
7
W
W
U
01/15
-14
L
L
O
09/08
8
W
W
U
09/15
7
W
W
U
09/22
10
W
W
U
09/29
-3
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
U
10/13
19
W
W
O