NYJJets
13-5
19
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
17°F
10 mph
24
PITSteelers
13-4
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
17°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
7
7
17
Steelers
7
11
0
0
18
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
287
Total Plays
57
64
Yards / Play
5.1
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.11
Passing Yards
219
121
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
10/19(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.02
Rushing Yards
70
166
Rush Attempts
22
43
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
36%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.98
-5.82
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-12
Sack EPA
-7.62
-2.64
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
50
25
Penalty EPA
-8.21
-2.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+93
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,629
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+33.5
Home QB Adjustment
+42.6
Away QB Adjustment
+9.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+42.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
2
Yards / Game
12
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
1
EPA
EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
6
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
8
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
5
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
25
RZ Efficiency
28
4
Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
5
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5
EPA
EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
9
9
EPA / Rush
10
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
18
4
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
15
4th Down Efficiency
27
12
RZ Efficiency
15
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U