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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ steelers week 20, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
13-5
19
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
17°F
10 mph
24
PITSteelers
13-4
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
17°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
7
7
17
Steelers
7
11
0
0
18

Spread

PIT logo
-4

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
289
287
Total Plays
57
64
Yards / Play
5.1
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.11
Passing Yards
219
121
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
10/19(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.02
Rushing Yards
70
166
Rush Attempts
22
43
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
36%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.98
-5.82
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-12
Sack EPA
-7.62
-2.64
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
50
25
Penalty EPA
-8.21
-2.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+90
Home nfelo
1,592
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+33.5
Home QB Adjustment
+42.6
Away QB Adjustment
+9.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
Value
Ptile
11/07
3.3
71
11/14
3.9
75
11/21
2.1
62
11/25
-4.1
23
12/06
-8.8
5
12/12
-10.4
3
12/19
2.9
69
12/26
2.8
68
01/08
-4.1
24
01/16
5.5
85
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+42.6
Value
Ptile
11/08
-1.1
42
11/14
2.9
69
11/21
11.8
99
11/28
-2.7
31
12/05
-2.0
36
12/12
-0.4
46
12/19
1.1
55
12/23
5.1
83
01/02
7.7
93
01/15
-1.6
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Jets logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
2
Yards / Game
12
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
1

EPA

EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
6
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
8
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
5
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
25
RZ Efficiency
28
4
Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Steelers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
12
5
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5

EPA

EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
9
9
EPA / Rush
10
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
18
4
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
15
4th Down Efficiency
27
12
RZ Efficiency
15
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
6
W
W
O
11/21
3
W
L
O
11/25
16
W
W
U
12/06
-42
L
L
O
12/12
-4
L
L
U
12/19
5
W
W
O
12/26
-4
L
L
O
01/02
31
W
W
O
01/08
1
W
W
U
01/16
7
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
6
W
W
O
11/14
-13
L
L
O
11/21
32
W
W
U
11/28
3
W
L
U
12/05
3
W
W
U
12/12
16
W
W
U
12/19
-5
L
L
O
12/23
24
W
W
U
01/02
32
W
W
O
01/15
7
W
W
O