NYJJets
2-8
21
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
014
HOUTexans
2-8
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
8
7
3
21
Texans
0
14
0
0
14
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
202
Total Plays
63
55
Yards / Play
4.3
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.32
Passing Yards
109
106
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
4.1
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.50
Rushing Yards
159
96
Rush Attempts
35
24
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
13
Passing 1st downs
6
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
15%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.52
-8.23
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-36
-52
Sack EPA
-8.33
-9.57
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
40
32
Penalty EPA
-4.83
-5.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,373
Away nfelo
1,322
Home Field
+32.3
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-11.0
Home QB Adjustment
-47.9
Away QB Adjustment
-36.9
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-36.9
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-47.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
27
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
13
26
Rushing Yards / Game
25
31
EPA
EPA / Play
25
26
EPA / Pass
29
26
EPA / Rush
13
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
9
Interceptions / Game
29
8
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
23
20
RZ Efficiency
20
20
Texans Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
32
32
Passing Yards / Game
22
16
Rushing Yards / Game
32
29
EPA
EPA / Play
30
32
EPA / Pass
28
32
EPA / Rush
30
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
22
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
27
4th Down Efficiency
27
26
RZ Efficiency
27
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U