NYJJets
2-1
13
TBD
Nissan Stadium
74°F
4 mph
38
TENTitans
2-1
TBD
Nissan Stadium
74°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
6
0
7
13
Titans
10
14
0
8
32
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
322
Total Plays
62
65
Yards / Play
5.3
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.11
Passing Yards
239
244
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.41
Rushing Yards
91
78
Rush Attempts
23
31
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-21.25
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-50
-13
Sack EPA
-13.64
-2.17
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
66
30
Penalty EPA
-6.59
-3.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
-35.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Value
Ptile
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
16
Yards / Game
25
14
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
6
19
EPA
EPA / Play
29
22
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
18
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
28
22
Fumbles / Game
5
1
Turnover EPA / Game
6
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
32
27
RZ Efficiency
26
27
Titans Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
19
Yards / Game
21
11
Passing Yards / Game
15
27
Rushing Yards / Game
14
2
EPA
EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
12
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
6
Interceptions / Game
18
22
Fumbles / Game
5
32
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
13
4th Down Efficiency
7
10
RZ Efficiency
9
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U