NYJJets
6-7
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
10 mph
14
TENTitans
4-9
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
0
7
0
10
Titans
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
253
294
Total Plays
63
56
Yards / Play
4.0
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.18
Passing Yards
107
127
Comp/Att
13/29(45%)
13/22(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.56
-0.15
Rushing Yards
146
167
Rush Attempts
30
30
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
12
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
42%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.43
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-24
-22
Sack EPA
-5.75
-5.97
Penalties
4
14
Penalty Yards
--
111
Penalty EPA
--
-6.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model47.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+19.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
-20.6
Market Regression
+0.0
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-20.6
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
32
Yards / Game
30
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
27
Rushing Yards / Game
12
23
EPA
EPA / Play
30
24
EPA / Pass
30
23
EPA / Rush
15
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
11
Interceptions / Game
28
5
Fumbles / Game
28
31
Turnover EPA / Game
3
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
17
9
RZ Efficiency
25
30
Titans Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
20
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
25
1
Rushing Yards / Game
21
26
EPA
EPA / Play
28
11
EPA / Pass
28
11
EPA / Rush
23
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
6
Interceptions / Game
18
23
Fumbles / Game
23
5
Turnover EPA / Game
8
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
31
RZ Efficiency
22
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U