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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ titans week 15, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
6-7
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
10 mph
14
TENTitans
4-9
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
0
7
0
10
Titans
0
7
7
0
14

Spread

TEN logo
+1

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
253
294
Total Plays
63
56
Yards / Play
4.0
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.18
Passing Yards
107
127
Comp/Att
13/29(45%)
13/22(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.56
-0.15
Rushing Yards
146
167
Rush Attempts
30
30
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
20
12
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
42%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.43
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-24
-22
Sack EPA
-5.75
-5.97
Penalties
4
14
Penalty Yards
--
111
Penalty EPA
--
-6.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model48.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+19.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
-20.6
Market Regression
-1.1
Final Difference
14.2
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-20.6
Value
Ptile
09/30
-9.9
2
10/08
-5.6
15
10/14
-2.0
36
10/21
-0.9
43
10/28
-4.1
24
11/11
-8.3
5
11/18
-1.9
37
11/22
1.3
59
12/02
-11.8
1
12/09
-4.0
24
J. Locker headshot

J. Locker

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Value
Ptile
09/09
0.6
53
09/16
-1.7
38
09/23
11.1
98
09/30
-5.7
14
11/11
0.1
51
11/25
-2.8
32
12/02
-6.9
10
12/09
1.4
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Titans Defense
Jets logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
28
32
Yards / Game
30
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
27
Rushing Yards / Game
12
23

EPA

EPA / Play
30
24
EPA / Pass
30
23
EPA / Rush
15
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
11
Interceptions / Game
28
5
Fumbles / Game
28
31
Turnover EPA / Game
3
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
17
9
RZ Efficiency
25
30
Titans Offense vs Jets Defense
Titans logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
23
20
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
25
1
Rushing Yards / Game
21
26

EPA

EPA / Play
28
11
EPA / Pass
28
11
EPA / Rush
23
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
6
Interceptions / Game
18
23
Fumbles / Game
23
5
Turnover EPA / Game
8
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
31
RZ Efficiency
22
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-34
L
L
U
10/08
-6
L
W
U
10/14
26
W
W
O
10/21
-3
L
W
O
10/28
-21
L
L
O
11/11
-21
L
L
U
11/18
14
W
W
O
11/22
-30
L
L
O
12/02
1
W
L
U
12/09
7
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-24
L
L
O
10/07
-23
L
L
U
10/11
3
W
W
O
10/21
1
W
W
O
10/28
-6
L
L
U
11/04
-31
L
L
O
11/11
34
W
W
U
11/25
-5
L
L
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/09
-4
L
L
O