NYJJets
2-11
16
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
6 mph
11
TENTitans
2-11
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
7
6
16
Titans
3
0
6
0
9
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
277
342
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
4.5
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.17
Passing Yards
163
253
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
16/35(46%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.17
Rushing Yards
114
89
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
15%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.07
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-7
Sack EPA
-3.18
-1.53
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
46
76
Penalty EPA
-5.22
-12.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model49.8%
Spread Pick
Titans+3.5
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,347
Away nfelo
1,351
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+19.2
Home QB Adjustment
+8.6
Away QB Adjustment
-10.6
Market Regression
-52.4
Final Difference
1.4
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
29
Yards / Game
22
27
Passing Yards / Game
23
2
Rushing Yards / Game
3
31
EPA
EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
29
26
EPA / Rush
10
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
6
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
15
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
7
14
RZ Efficiency
32
24
Titans Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
29
7
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5
EPA
EPA / Play
30
26
EPA / Pass
30
24
EPA / Rush
17
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
8
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
13
21
Turnover EPA / Game
13
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
30
4th Down Efficiency
28
1
RZ Efficiency
26
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U