NYJJets
2-2
17
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
59°F
8 mph
23
MINVikings
4-0
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
59°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
7
3
7
17
Vikings
4
7
0
6
17
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
254
253
Total Plays
71
66
Yards / Play
3.6
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.10
Passing Yards
218
171
Comp/Att
29/54(54%)
15/32(47%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.30
-0.29
Rushing Yards
36
82
Rush Attempts
14
30
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.55
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
29%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-13.92
-8.04
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-26
-32
Sack EPA
-5.50
-6.67
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
76
80
Penalty EPA
-9.65
-11.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model55.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+11
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
-8.3
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-15.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
36.1
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
4
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
5
31
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2
EPA
EPA / Play
19
2
EPA / Pass
18
7
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
4
Interceptions / Game
11
1
Fumbles / Game
10
13
Turnover EPA / Game
17
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
2
4th Down Efficiency
28
1
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Vikings Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
19
Yards / Game
12
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
4
Rushing Yards / Game
19
17
EPA
EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
17
19
EPA / Rush
23
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
17
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
19
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
14
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
19
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U