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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ vikings week 13, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
7-4
22
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
27
MINVikings
9-2
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
3
6
10
22
Vikings
3
17
0
7
27

Spread

MIN logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
486
287
Total Plays
83
66
Yards / Play
5.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.01
Passing Yards
366
159
Comp/Att
31/58(53%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.05
Rushing Yards
120
128
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
19%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
16
18
Red Zone %
17%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.47
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-14
Sack EPA
-1.36
-4.04
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
40
44
Penalty EPA
-5.22
-4.60

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model60.6%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings-2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+32.9
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+9.7
Home QB Adjustment
-8.6
Away QB Adjustment
-18.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
74.7
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

M. White headshot

M. White

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-18.2
Value
Ptile
10/31
6.1
88
11/04
-3.6
27
11/14
-8.2
7
11/27
7.5
92
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.6
Value
Ptile
09/19
-6.2
13
09/25
0.6
56
10/02
-0.6
47
10/09
5.7
88
10/16
-2.2
35
10/30
3.0
76
11/06
-2.2
36
11/13
-1.6
42
11/20
-10.4
1
11/24
8.8
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Vikings Defense
Jets logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
29
30
Yards / Game
25
31
Passing Yards / Game
10
26
Rushing Yards / Game
25
21

EPA

EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
26
27
EPA / Rush
22
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
11
24
Turnover EPA / Game
11
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
26
6
RZ Efficiency
31
22
Vikings Offense vs Jets Defense
Vikings logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
8
2
Yards / Game
5
4
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
29
17

EPA

EPA / Play
17
4
EPA / Pass
10
5
EPA / Rush
28
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
13
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
18
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
8
RZ Efficiency
8
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
1
W
W
O
09/25
-15
L
L
U
10/02
4
W
W
O
10/09
23
W
W
O
10/16
17
W
W
U
10/23
7
W
W
U
10/30
-5
L
L
U
11/06
3
W
W
U
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/27
21
W
W
O
MIN logo

Vikings

8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-17
L
L
U
09/25
4
W
L
P
10/02
3
W
L
O
10/09
7
W
L
O
10/16
8
W
W
U
10/30
8
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
P
U
11/13
3
W
W
O
11/20
-37
L
L
U
11/24
7
W
W
O