DETLions
0-1
27
TBD
Levi's Stadium
73°F
12 mph
30
SF49ers
0-1
TBD
Levi's Stadium
73°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
3
3
14
27
49ers
3
10
14
3
30
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
427
346
Total Plays
73
60
Yards / Play
5.8
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.22
Passing Yards
329
156
Comp/Att
34/53(64%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.17
Rushing Yards
98
190
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
5.4
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
23
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
44%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.04
--
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-18
-50
Sack EPA
-6.67
-6.57
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
105
86
Penalty EPA
-8.61
-3.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model68.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+107
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+86.5
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-0.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-2.5
Market Regression
+69.0
Final Difference
134.4
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
28
Yards / Game
24
13
Passing Yards / Game
20
20
Rushing Yards / Game
23
13
EPA
EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
22
28
EPA / Rush
25
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
14
32
Fumbles / Game
18
26
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
21
4th Down Efficiency
9
18
RZ Efficiency
25
26
49ers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
16
Yards / Game
14
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
25
Rushing Yards / Game
12
11
EPA
EPA / Play
21
15
EPA / Pass
20
24
EPA / Rush
28
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
19
11
RZ Efficiency
32
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U