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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ 49ers week 21, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
14-5
31
TBD
Levi's Stadium
69°F
5 mph
34
SF49ers
13-5
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
69°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
14
10
0
7
31
49ers
0
7
17
10
34

Spread

DET logo
+7

Total

OVER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
442
413
Total Plays
72
66
Yards / Play
6.1
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.21
Passing Yards
260
258
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.21
Rushing Yards
182
155
Rush Attempts
29
33
Yards / Rush
6.3
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
28
23
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Lions logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.57
-2.51
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-9
Sack EPA
-2.79
-2.06
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
--
20
Penalty EPA
--
-0.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+221
Home nfelo
1,700
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+86.8
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
+24.7
Net QB Adjustment
+12.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.3
Away QB Adjustment
+7.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
190.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Value
Ptile
11/19
-5.1
19
11/23
4.1
76
12/03
1.8
62
12/10
-9.4
4
12/16
8.7
96
12/24
3.0
70
12/30
-1.9
37
01/07
5.2
82
01/14
1.5
60
01/21
3.2
71
B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
Value
Ptile
10/29
5.3
83
11/12
5.3
83
11/19
5.5
84
11/23
-1.2
42
12/03
8.3
94
12/10
2.9
69
12/17
5.8
85
12/25
-8.3
8
12/31
4.3
77
01/20
0.7
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs 49ers Defense
Lions logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
2
9
Passing Yards / Game
3
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
5

EPA

EPA / Play
8
18
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
11
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
27
Interceptions / Game
8
2
Fumbles / Game
19
28
Turnover EPA / Game
14
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
14
RZ Efficiency
2
11
49ers Offense vs Lions Defense
49ers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
2
25
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2

EPA

EPA / Play
1
23
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
5
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
27
Interceptions / Game
12
9
Fumbles / Game
9
29
Turnover EPA / Game
24
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
27
RZ Efficiency
1
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
5
W
L
O
11/23
-7
L
L
O
12/03
5
W
W
O
12/10
-15
L
L
U
12/16
25
W
W
O
12/24
6
W
W
O
12/30
-1
L
W
U
01/07
10
W
W
O
01/14
1
W
L
U
01/21
8
W
W
O
SF logo

49ers

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
31
W
W
U
11/19
13
W
L
U
11/23
18
W
W
O
12/03
23
W
W
O
12/10
12
W
L
U
12/17
16
W
W
O
12/25
-14
L
L
O
12/31
17
W
W
U
01/07
-1
L
L
O
01/20
3
W
L
U