DETLions
14-5
31
TBD
Levi's Stadium
69°F
5 mph
34
SF49ers
13-5
TBD
Levi's Stadium
69°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
14
10
0
7
31
49ers
0
7
17
10
34
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
442
413
Total Plays
72
66
Yards / Play
6.1
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.21
Passing Yards
260
258
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.21
Rushing Yards
182
155
Rush Attempts
29
33
Yards / Rush
6.3
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
23
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.57
-2.51
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-9
Sack EPA
-2.79
-2.06
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
--
20
Penalty EPA
--
-0.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model75.0%
Spread Pick
49ers-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+222
Home nfelo
1,698
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+87.0
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
+24.8
Net QB Adjustment
+11.9
Home QB Adjustment
+19.2
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
190.4
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
2
9
Passing Yards / Game
3
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
5
EPA
EPA / Play
8
18
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
11
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
27
Interceptions / Game
8
2
Fumbles / Game
19
28
Turnover EPA / Game
14
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
14
RZ Efficiency
2
11
49ers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
25
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2
EPA
EPA / Play
1
23
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
5
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
27
Interceptions / Game
12
9
Fumbles / Game
9
29
Turnover EPA / Game
24
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
27
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
49ers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U