DETLions
1-2
14
TBD
Soldier Field
62°F
6 mph
17
CHIBears
0-3
TBD
Soldier Field
62°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
3
2
8
Bears
7
0
7
3
17
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
408
Total Plays
57
67
Yards / Play
4.6
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.08
Passing Yards
199
294
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
28/36(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.37
Rushing Yards
66
114
Rush Attempts
18
29
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.72
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-8
Sack EPA
-2.91
-2.99
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
76
55
Penalty EPA
-9.58
-7.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-102
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+41.1
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-84.8
Home QB Adjustment
-67.1
Away QB Adjustment
+17.7
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-67.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
23
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
2
Rushing Yards / Game
30
26
EPA
EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
24
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
25
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
17
10
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
14
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
21
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20
EPA
EPA / Play
26
30
EPA / Pass
22
31
EPA / Rush
22
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
13
Interceptions / Game
28
26
Fumbles / Game
25
29
Turnover EPA / Game
4
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
22
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U