DETLions
0-3
14
TBD
Soldier Field
72°F
4 mph
24
CHIBears
1-2
TBD
Soldier Field
72°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
7
7
14
Bears
7
7
10
0
24
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
351
373
Total Plays
67
57
Yards / Play
5.2
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.17
Passing Yards
261
185
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
11/17(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
10.9
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.19
Rushing Yards
90
188
Rush Attempts
25
39
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.33
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
15
5
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
36%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
11
8
Red Zone %
20%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.94
-2.96
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-38
-24
Sack EPA
-10.03
-2.55
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
26
61
Penalty EPA
-3.64
-1.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,387
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
-19.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
-7.6
Net QB Adjustment
-47.0
Home QB Adjustment
-39.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-39.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
6
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22
EPA
EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
21
20
EPA / Rush
25
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
31
14
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
31
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28
EPA
EPA / Play
27
30
EPA / Pass
30
29
EPA / Rush
18
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
19
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
30
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U