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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ bears week 4, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DET logo
DETLions
0-3
14
TBD
Soldier Field
72°F
4 mph
24
CHIBears
1-2
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
72°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
7
7
14
Bears
7
7
10
0
24

Spread

CHI logo
-3

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
351
373
Total Plays
67
57
Yards / Play
5.2
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.17
Passing Yards
261
185
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
11/17(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
10.9
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.19
Rushing Yards
90
188
Rush Attempts
25
39
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.33
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
15
5
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
36%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
11
8
Red Zone %
20%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.94
-2.96
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-38
-24
Sack EPA
-10.03
-2.55
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
26
61
Penalty EPA
-3.64
-1.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
-19.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
-7.6
Net QB Adjustment
-47.0
Home QB Adjustment
-39.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Value
Ptile
11/23
8.5
93
11/29
-7.2
7
12/06
8.0
92
12/10
-0.7
40
12/20
-4.2
18
12/27
-6.1
10
01/16
-1.5
33
09/12
4.3
81
09/20
5.2
84
09/26
-0.9
46
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-39.9
Value
Ptile
09/26
-18.2
0

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
6
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22

EPA

EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
21
20
EPA / Rush
25
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
31
14
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
27
31
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28

EPA

EPA / Play
27
30
EPA / Pass
30
29
EPA / Rush
18
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
19
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
30
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-20
L
L
U
11/26
-16
L
L
O
12/06
4
W
W
O
12/13
-7
L
W
U
12/20
-21
L
L
O
12/26
-40
L
L
U
01/03
-2
L
W
O
09/12
-8
L
W
O
09/20
-18
L
L
O
09/26
-2
L
W
U
CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-16
L
L
O
12/06
-4
L
L
O
12/13
29
W
W
U
12/20
6
W
W
O
12/27
24
W
W
O
01/03
-19
L
L
O
01/10
-12
L
L
U
09/12
-20
L
L
O
09/19
3
W
W
U
09/26
-20
L
L
U