DETLions
5-3
21
TBD
Soldier Field
47°F
6 mph
19
CHIBears
5-3
TBD
Soldier Field
47°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
0
7
7
21
Bears
7
0
3
9
19
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
338
Total Plays
61
72
Yards / Play
6.0
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.00
Passing Yards
--
300
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
27/49(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.16
Rushing Yards
145
38
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
5.6
1.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.54
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
42%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.28
-5.16
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
+0.75
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
51
39
Penalty EPA
-6.05
-8.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
-3.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+20.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
5
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
13
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32
EPA
EPA / Play
19
31
EPA / Pass
12
16
EPA / Rush
25
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
31
20
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
4
20
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
7
16
Passing Yards / Game
7
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
6
EPA
EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
6
19
EPA / Rush
8
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
12
16
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
7
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
8-2
O/U