nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ bears week 10, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DET logo
DETLions
3-5
22
TBD
Soldier Field
37°F
12 mph
34
CHIBears
5-3
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
37°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
7
3
12
22
Bears
13
13
8
0
34

Spread

CHI logo
-7

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
305
404
Total Plays
74
54
Yards / Play
4.1
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.06
Passing Yards
229
350
Comp/Att
25/44(57%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
11.3
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.54
Rushing Yards
76
54
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
27%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.11
--
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-45
-7
Sack EPA
-10.86
-1.79
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
41
46
Penalty EPA
-5.41
-4.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model71.7%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+124
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+42.1
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
+31.2
Home QB Adjustment
+25.6
Away QB Adjustment
-5.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
161.3
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Value
Ptile
12/24
-4.0
25
12/31
5.1
85
09/10
-4.8
19
09/16
6.8
89
09/23
3.8
73
09/30
4.7
78
10/07
-2.7
29
10/21
3.7
73
10/28
2.6
67
11/04
-9.9
3
M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Value
Ptile
12/24
-3.0
32
12/31
-1.8
39
09/09
-2.0
33
09/17
0.2
48
09/23
-3.6
24
09/30
15.2
99
10/14
7.0
90
10/21
4.9
79
10/28
2.7
68
11/04
-3.5
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
23
1

EPA

EPA / Play
23
1
EPA / Pass
22
3
EPA / Rush
25
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
14
1
Fumbles / Game
18
17
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
4
4th Down Efficiency
9
17
RZ Efficiency
25
4
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
10
16
Yards / Game
21
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
25
Rushing Yards / Game
14
11

EPA

EPA / Play
17
15
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
17
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
14
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
12
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-9
L
L
U
12/31
24
W
W
O
09/10
-31
L
L
O
09/16
-3
L
W
O
09/23
16
W
W
U
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
8
W
W
O
10/21
11
W
W
O
10/28
-14
L
L
U
11/04
-15
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
17
W
W
U
12/31
-13
L
W
U
09/09
-1
L
W
O
09/17
7
W
W
U
09/23
2
W
L
U
09/30
38
W
W
O
10/14
-3
L
L
O
10/21
-7
L
L
O
10/28
14
W
W
U
11/04
32
W
W
O