DETLions
3-5
22
TBD
Soldier Field
37°F
12 mph
34
CHIBears
5-3
TBD
Soldier Field
37°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
7
3
12
22
Bears
13
13
8
0
34
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
404
Total Plays
74
54
Yards / Play
4.1
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.06
Passing Yards
229
350
Comp/Att
25/44(57%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
11.3
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.54
Rushing Yards
76
54
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
27%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.11
--
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-45
-7
Sack EPA
-10.86
-1.79
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
41
46
Penalty EPA
-5.41
-4.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model71.7%
Spread Pick
Lions+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+41.6
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+31.2
Home QB Adjustment
+25.6
Away QB Adjustment
-5.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
161.7
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
23
1
EPA
EPA / Play
23
1
EPA / Pass
22
3
EPA / Rush
25
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
14
1
Fumbles / Game
18
17
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
4
4th Down Efficiency
9
17
RZ Efficiency
25
4
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
16
Yards / Game
21
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
25
Rushing Yards / Game
14
11
EPA
EPA / Play
17
15
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
17
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
14
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U