DETLions
5-4
27
TBD
Soldier Field
33°F
16 mph
24
CHIBears
3-6
TBD
Soldier Field
33°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
15
0
6
21
Bears
10
7
0
7
24
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
398
Total Plays
58
61
Yards / Play
6.1
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.03
Passing Yards
287
176
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.13
Rushing Yards
65
222
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
2.7
7.4
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
30%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
9
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.31
-8.26
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-12
-3
Sack EPA
-7.12
-0.82
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
49
64
Penalty EPA
-6.22
-3.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,419
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+40.2
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+2.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.7
Away QB Adjustment
-0.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
8
Yards / Game
13
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
12
13
EPA / Rush
32
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
16
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
28
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
20
4th Down Efficiency
31
22
RZ Efficiency
14
10
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
21
Yards / Game
30
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19
EPA
EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
28
11
EPA / Rush
17
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
7
Interceptions / Game
13
3
Fumbles / Game
25
4
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
15
4th Down Efficiency
23
21
RZ Efficiency
5
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U