DETLions
4-7
34
TBD
Soldier Field
35°F
5 mph
30
CHIBears
5-6
TBD
Soldier Field
35°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
6
7
7
14
34
Bears
9
14
0
7
30
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
460
389
Total Plays
66
67
Yards / Play
7.0
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.11
Passing Yards
400
249
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.19
Rushing Yards
60
140
Rush Attempts
22
31
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
26
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
55%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.70
-4.91
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-2
-18
Sack EPA
-2.45
-7.17
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
45
20
Penalty EPA
-4.73
-3.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+69
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,385
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+16.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.9
Away QB Adjustment
-11.1
Market Regression
-50.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.1
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
13
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
9
22
Rushing Yards / Game
30
14
EPA
EPA / Play
20
10
EPA / Pass
18
20
EPA / Rush
29
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
17
Interceptions / Game
17
28
Fumbles / Game
12
21
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
11
4th Down Efficiency
24
18
RZ Efficiency
10
6
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
32
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28
EPA
EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
20
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
9
27
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
28
4th Down Efficiency
14
22
RZ Efficiency
21
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U