DETLions
9-3
13
TBD
Soldier Field
36°F
12 mph
28
CHIBears
4-8
TBD
Soldier Field
36°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
13
0
0
13
Bears
10
0
9
9
28
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
336
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
4.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.02
Passing Yards
127
194
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.06
Rushing Yards
140
142
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.09
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-34
-29
Sack EPA
-5.96
-3.63
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
59
35
Penalty EPA
-8.55
-0.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-92
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+45.7
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
-20.5
Home Bye Adj
+13.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
+5.7
Market Regression
+58.7
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
19
Yards / Game
2
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
9
Rushing Yards / Game
6
1
EPA
EPA / Play
8
8
EPA / Pass
5
18
EPA / Rush
11
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
7
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
19
26
Turnover EPA / Game
14
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
29
4th Down Efficiency
13
4
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
25
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
2
2
EPA
EPA / Play
23
23
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
3
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
27
Interceptions / Game
22
9
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U