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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ bears week 16, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DET logo
DETLions
10-4
20
TBD
Soldier Field
36°F
13 mph
14
CHIBears
5-9
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
36°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
0
3
10
20
Bears
0
7
7
0
14

Spread

CHI logo
+10

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
367
234
Total Plays
69
63
Yards / Play
5.3
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.03
Passing Yards
229
170
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.11
Rushing Yards
138
64
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.86
+3.63
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-14
-11
Sack EPA
-4.77
-2.75
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
60
86
Penalty EPA
-8.85
-11.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-268
Home nfelo
1,384
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-131.7
Home QB Adjustment
-130.9
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Value
Ptile
10/05
-5.7
17
10/12
-4.9
21
10/19
-1.0
43
10/26
1.2
59
11/09
0.6
54
11/16
-6.8
11
11/23
-6.8
11
11/27
8.0
91
12/07
4.4
80
12/14
-0.5
47
J. Clausen headshot

J. Clausen

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-130.9
Value
Ptile
09/26
-4.2
22
10/03
-3.1
29
10/10
-13.5
1
11/14
-2.3
33
11/28
-5.6
15
12/05
-7.7
7
12/12
-10.6
2
12/19
-0.5
45
12/23
-10.5
3
01/02
-4.3
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
22
31
Yards / Game
17
30
Passing Yards / Game
7
32
Rushing Yards / Game
28
16

EPA

EPA / Play
21
29
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
24
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
13
Interceptions / Game
9
16
Fumbles / Game
8
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
30
RZ Efficiency
15
12
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
20
2
Passing Yards / Game
18
13
Rushing Yards / Game
27
1

EPA

EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
26
10
EPA / Rush
6
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
30
6
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
8
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
2
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-3
L
L
U
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
1
W
L
O
10/26
1
W
L
U
11/09
4
W
W
U
11/16
-8
L
L
U
11/23
-25
L
L
U
11/27
17
W
W
O
12/07
17
W
W
O
12/14
2
W
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-7
L
L
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
-13
L
L
U
10/26
-28
L
L
O
11/09
-41
L
L
O
11/16
8
W
W
U
11/23
8
W
W
U
11/27
-17
L
L
O
12/04
-13
L
L
O
12/15
-16
L
L
U