DETLions
10-4
20
TBD
Soldier Field
36°F
13 mph
14
CHIBears
5-9
TBD
Soldier Field
36°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
0
3
10
20
Bears
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
234
Total Plays
69
63
Yards / Play
5.3
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.03
Passing Yards
229
170
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.11
Rushing Yards
138
64
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.86
+3.63
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-14
-11
Sack EPA
-4.77
-2.75
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
60
86
Penalty EPA
-8.85
-11.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-267
Home nfelo
1,386
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-131.7
Home QB Adjustment
-130.9
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
-16.7
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
J. Clausen
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-130.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
31
Yards / Game
17
30
Passing Yards / Game
7
32
Rushing Yards / Game
28
16
EPA
EPA / Play
21
29
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
24
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
13
Interceptions / Game
9
16
Fumbles / Game
8
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
30
RZ Efficiency
15
12
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
20
2
Passing Yards / Game
18
13
Rushing Yards / Game
27
1
EPA
EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
26
10
EPA / Rush
6
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
30
6
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
8
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
2
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bears
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U