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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ browns week 11, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
0-8
10
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
42°F
7 mph
13
CLEBrowns
5-5
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
42°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
7
3
10
Browns
0
13
0
0
13

Spread

DET logo
+13

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
245
349
Total Plays
46
66
Yards / Play
5.3
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.15
Passing Yards
--
165
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.53
-0.25
Rushing Yards
168
184
Rush Attempts
23
36
Yards / Rush
7.3
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
5
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
27%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.28
-5.84
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-1.76
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
67
82
Penalty EPA
-4.87
-7.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market84.9%
Model87.5%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns-13.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.2%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+379
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,355
Home Field
+53.6
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+120.9
Home QB Adjustment
-17.5
Away QB Adjustment
-138.4
Market Regression
+26.8
Final Difference
337.7
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

T. Boyle headshot

T. Boyle

Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-138.4
No recent game data available
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-17.5
Value
Ptile
01/17
-2.3
28
09/12
-0.1
53
09/19
-0.1
53
09/26
-2.0
38
10/03
-8.1
8
10/10
6.1
88
10/17
-3.8
25
10/31
-3.2
29
11/07
-0.5
49
11/14
-7.8
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Browns Defense
Lions logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
25
14
Yards / Game
22
3
Passing Yards / Game
25
8
Rushing Yards / Game
18
11

EPA

EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
25
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
6
Interceptions / Game
14
17
Fumbles / Game
20
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
14
4th Down Efficiency
21
27
RZ Efficiency
31
28
Browns Offense vs Lions Defense
Browns logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
20
31
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
4
28

EPA

EPA / Play
20
30
EPA / Pass
22
29
EPA / Rush
4
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
19
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
29
4th Down Efficiency
30
28
RZ Efficiency
12
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

0-9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-2
L
W
O
09/12
-8
L
W
O
09/20
-18
L
L
O
09/26
-2
L
W
U
10/03
-10
L
L
U
10/10
-2
L
W
U
10/17
-23
L
L
U
10/24
-9
L
W
U
10/31
-38
L
L
O
11/14
0
T
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-4
L
W
O
09/19
10
W
L
O
09/26
20
W
W
U
10/03
7
W
W
U
10/10
-5
L
L
O
10/17
-23
L
L
O
10/21
3
W
W
U
10/31
-5
L
L
U
11/07
25
W
W
O
11/14
-38
L
L
O