DETLions
1-1
20
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
013
ARICardinals
1-1
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
13
0
0
20
Cardinals
7
3
0
3
13
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
277
Total Plays
68
53
Yards / Play
5.5
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.18
Passing Yards
186
200
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.17
Rushing Yards
187
77
Rush Attempts
43
18
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
50%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.90
-4.55
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-7
Sack EPA
-3.89
-1.35
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
79
30
Penalty EPA
-8.97
-3.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model58.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-12
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+79.9
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+16.8
Net QB Adjustment
+34.5
Home QB Adjustment
+28.5
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
-56.8
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+28.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
16
Yards / Game
2
20
Passing Yards / Game
10
8
Rushing Yards / Game
3
20
EPA
EPA / Play
3
25
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
6
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
24
25
Fumbles / Game
2
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
17
RZ Efficiency
3
8
Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
7
6
EPA
EPA / Play
8
7
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
5
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
24
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
1
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
17
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U