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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ cardinals week 3, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DET logo
DETLions
1-1
20
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
13
ARICardinals
1-1
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
13
0
0
20
Cardinals
7
3
0
3
13

Spread

DET logo
-3

Total

UNDER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
373
277
Total Plays
68
53
Yards / Play
5.5
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.18
Passing Yards
186
200
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.17
Rushing Yards
187
77
Rush Attempts
43
18
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
50%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.90
-4.55
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-7
Sack EPA
-3.89
-1.35
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
79
30
Penalty EPA
-8.97
-3.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model56.5%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+79.9
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+16.8
Net QB Adjustment
+34.5
Home QB Adjustment
+28.5
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
-7.1
Final Difference
-45.5
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Value
Ptile
12/10
-9.4
4
12/16
8.7
96
12/24
3.0
70
12/30
-1.9
37
01/07
5.2
82
01/14
1.5
60
01/21
3.2
71
01/28
1.5
59
09/08
-2.2
33
09/15
-2.2
33
K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+28.5
Value
Ptile
11/12
-1.1
43
11/19
1.7
61
11/26
0.1
49
12/03
-1.9
35
12/17
-0.8
45
12/24
2.8
69
12/31
5.5
84
01/07
4.9
81
09/08
1.6
60
09/15
10.2
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Lions logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
1
16
Yards / Game
2
20
Passing Yards / Game
10
8
Rushing Yards / Game
3
20

EPA

EPA / Play
3
25
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
6
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
24
25
Fumbles / Game
2
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
17
RZ Efficiency
3
8
Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Cardinals logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
7
6

EPA

EPA / Play
8
7
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
5
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
24
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
1
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
17
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
-15
L
L
U
12/16
25
W
W
O
12/24
6
W
W
O
12/30
-1
L
W
U
01/07
10
W
W
O
01/14
1
W
L
U
01/21
8
W
W
O
01/28
-3
L
W
O
09/08
6
W
W
U
09/15
-4
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
2
W
W
O
11/19
-5
L
W
U
11/26
-23
L
L
O
12/03
14
W
W
U
12/17
-16
L
L
O
12/24
-11
L
L
O
12/31
4
W
W
O
01/07
-1
L
W
U
09/08
-6
L
W
O
09/15
31
W
W
O