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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ cardinals week 14, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
4-8
17
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
3
ARICardinals
3-9
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
1
7
11
Cardinals
0
0
0
3
3

Spread

DET logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
218
279
Total Plays
55
65
Yards / Play
4.0
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.40
Passing Yards
96
218
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.48
-0.32
Rushing Yards
122
61
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
6
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.54
-8.40
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-22
Sack EPA
-1.25
-5.61
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
68
83
Penalty EPA
-6.77
-9.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model49.2%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.8%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,384
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+98.9
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+20.7
Net QB Adjustment
-23.7
Home QB Adjustment
-43.7
Away QB Adjustment
-20.0
Market Regression
-6.3
Final Difference
5.7
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-20.0
Value
Ptile
09/23
3.8
73
09/30
4.7
78
10/07
-2.7
29
10/21
3.7
73
10/28
2.6
67
11/04
-9.9
3
11/11
-5.2
17
11/18
-0.3
44
11/22
-2.6
31
12/02
-5.2
17
J. Rosen headshot

J. Rosen

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-43.7
Value
Ptile
09/30
0.0
46
10/07
-5.2
17
10/14
-5.4
16
10/18
-11.4
2
10/28
-2.2
32
11/11
-9.4
5
11/18
-5.8
14
11/25
-5.5
15
12/02
-4.6
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Lions logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
25
26
Yards / Game
24
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
14
Rushing Yards / Game
23
32

EPA

EPA / Play
23
14
EPA / Pass
22
12
EPA / Rush
25
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
4
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
18
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
16
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
25
22
Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Cardinals logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
32
16
Yards / Game
32
9
Passing Yards / Game
28
25
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11

EPA

EPA / Play
32
15
EPA / Pass
32
24
EPA / Rush
30
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
14
Interceptions / Game
28
29
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
11
RZ Efficiency
8
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
16
W
W
U
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
8
W
W
O
10/21
11
W
W
O
10/28
-14
L
L
U
11/04
-15
L
L
U
11/11
-12
L
L
O
11/18
1
W
W
U
11/22
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-2
L
W
U
09/30
-3
L
W
U
10/07
10
W
W
O
10/14
-10
L
P
O
10/18
-35
L
L
O
10/28
3
W
W
U
11/11
-12
L
W
U
11/18
-2
L
L
O
11/25
-35
L
L
O
12/02
3
W
W
U