DETLions
4-8
17
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
03
ARICardinals
3-9
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
1
7
11
Cardinals
0
0
0
3
3
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
218
279
Total Plays
55
65
Yards / Play
4.0
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.40
Passing Yards
96
218
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.48
-0.32
Rushing Yards
122
61
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
6
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.54
-8.40
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-22
Sack EPA
-1.25
-5.61
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
68
83
Penalty EPA
-6.77
-9.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model49.4%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,384
Away nfelo
1,413
Home Field
+97.7
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
-23.7
Home QB Adjustment
-43.7
Away QB Adjustment
-20.0
Market Regression
-6.3
Final Difference
4.3
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-20.0
J. Rosen
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-43.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
26
Yards / Game
24
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
14
Rushing Yards / Game
23
32
EPA
EPA / Play
23
14
EPA / Pass
22
12
EPA / Rush
25
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
4
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
18
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
16
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
25
22
Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
16
Yards / Game
32
9
Passing Yards / Game
28
25
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11
EPA
EPA / Play
32
15
EPA / Pass
32
24
EPA / Rush
30
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
14
Interceptions / Game
28
29
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
11
RZ Efficiency
8
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U