DETLions
4-1
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
85°F
13 mph
30
KCChiefs
2-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
85°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
7
0
7
17
Chiefs
6
7
7
10
30
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
355
Total Plays
53
62
Yards / Play
5.6
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.27
Passing Yards
199
243
Comp/Att
23/29(79%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.52
Rushing Yards
98
112
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
45%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-4
-14
Sack EPA
-1.59
-2.94
Penalties
4
--
Penalty Yards
38
--
Penalty EPA
-4.54
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+5
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,649
Home Field
+61.6
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+11.6
Home QB Adjustment
+19.4
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
+12.6
Final Difference
34.8
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
4
Yards / Game
5
7
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
7
9
EPA
EPA / Play
7
17
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
21
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
20
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
6
25
Turnover EPA / Game
29
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
23
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
5
10
Chiefs Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
10
Yards / Game
7
5
Passing Yards / Game
6
10
Rushing Yards / Game
16
8
EPA
EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
6
5
EPA / Rush
3
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
10
11
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
26
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
3
10
RZ Efficiency
7
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U