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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ chiefs week 6, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DET logo
DETLions
4-1
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
85°F
13 mph
30
KCChiefs
2-3
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
85°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
7
0
7
17
Chiefs
6
7
7
10
30

Spread

KC logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
297
355
Total Plays
53
62
Yards / Play
5.6
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.27
Passing Yards
199
243
Comp/Att
23/29(79%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.52
Rushing Yards
98
112
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
45%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-4
-14
Sack EPA
-1.59
-2.94
Penalties
4
--
Penalty Yards
38
--
Penalty EPA
-4.54
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+3
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,648
Home Field
+61.6
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+11.6
Home QB Adjustment
+19.4
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
+5.3
Final Difference
27.5
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Value
Ptile
12/15
13.6
99
12/22
8.0
93
12/30
7.1
90
01/05
-1.0
42
01/18
-4.6
19
09/07
-1.9
37
09/14
13.3
99
09/22
2.2
66
09/28
-0.3
48
10/05
2.1
65
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
Value
Ptile
12/21
8.0
93
12/25
11.3
98
01/18
0.2
50
01/26
7.0
90
02/09
-2.5
32
09/05
5.7
88
09/14
2.5
68
09/21
-2.6
33
09/28
7.3
93
10/06
9.5
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Lions logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
3
6
Yards / Game
6
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
12
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10

EPA

EPA / Play
8
21
EPA / Pass
6
17
EPA / Rush
25
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
13
Interceptions / Game
3
19
Fumbles / Game
15
29
Turnover EPA / Game
25
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
5
12
Chiefs Offense vs Lions Defense
Chiefs logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
20
23
Yards / Game
17
18
Passing Yards / Game
9
21
Rushing Yards / Game
23
16

EPA

EPA / Play
9
12
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
5
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
16
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
25
RZ Efficiency
12
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-6
L
L
O
12/22
17
W
W
O
12/30
6
W
W
O
01/05
22
W
W
U
01/18
-14
L
L
O
09/07
-14
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
09/22
8
W
W
O
09/28
24
W
W
U
10/05
13
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
19
W
W
U
01/05
-38
L
L
U
01/18
9
W
L
U
01/26
3
W
W
O
02/09
-18
L
L
O
09/05
-6
L
L
O
09/14
-3
L
L
U
09/21
13
W
W
U
09/28
17
W
W
O
10/06
-3
L
L
O