DETLions
3-1
47
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
09
DALCowboys
3-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
20
10
10
47
Cowboys
3
3
3
0
9
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
492
251
Total Plays
66
65
Yards / Play
7.5
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.39
-0.36
Passing Yards
308
198
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
25/44(57%)
Yards / Pass
11.4
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.60
-0.74
Rushing Yards
184
53
Rush Attempts
36
17
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
16
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
40%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
60%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-23.33
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-26
-26
Sack EPA
-6.95
-6.25
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
63
30
Penalty EPA
-6.85
-3.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,634
Home Field
+18.3
Base HFA
+45.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-35.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
31
Yards / Game
2
28
Passing Yards / Game
10
19
Rushing Yards / Game
3
29
EPA
EPA / Play
3
27
EPA / Pass
2
15
EPA / Rush
6
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
19
Interceptions / Game
24
13
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
15
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
3
32
Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
11
Yards / Game
16
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
16
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6
EPA
EPA / Play
25
7
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
30
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
24
Interceptions / Game
21
7
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
5
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
1
4th Down Efficiency
32
4
RZ Efficiency
31
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U