DETLions
1-4
6
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
024
DALCowboys
4-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
3
0
0
6
Cowboys
0
3
7
14
24
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
330
Total Plays
56
59
Yards / Play
5.6
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.37
-0.03
Passing Yards
195
191
Comp/Att
21/26(81%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.18
Rushing Yards
117
139
Rush Attempts
25
32
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
9
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-22.29
-4.20
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-33
-16
Sack EPA
-13.73
-5.45
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
59
55
Penalty EPA
-7.14
-5.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+190
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+1.7
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.5
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+5.0
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
6
Yards / Game
4
13
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22
EPA
EPA / Play
4
3
EPA / Pass
3
4
EPA / Rush
25
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
29
Interceptions / Game
2
10
Fumbles / Game
11
1
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
17
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
28
Yards / Game
10
32
Passing Yards / Game
23
22
Rushing Yards / Game
9
29
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
9
24
EPA / Rush
12
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
3
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
30
4th Down Efficiency
5
21
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U