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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ cowboys week 16, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
9-5
21
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
42
DALCowboys
12-2
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
14
0
0
21
Cowboys
14
7
14
7
42

Spread

DAL logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
319
375
Total Plays
70
52
Yards / Play
4.6
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.40
Passing Yards
229
211
Comp/Att
26/46(57%)
16/21(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
10.0
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.87
Rushing Yards
90
164
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.47
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-31
-11
Sack EPA
-11.64
-2.07
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
62
47
Penalty EPA
-5.32
-4.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+68.7
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+24.4
Home QB Adjustment
+28.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
-29.8
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Value
Ptile
10/09
1.6
61
10/16
8.1
93
10/23
1.7
62
10/30
2.5
68
11/06
1.5
60
11/20
-0.7
43
11/24
1.6
61
12/04
6.8
89
12/11
-3.1
26
12/18
-0.0
48
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+28.6
Value
Ptile
10/09
3.9
77
10/16
2.3
67
10/30
3.0
72
11/06
7.2
90
11/13
4.1
80
11/20
9.1
95
11/24
3.9
78
12/01
-0.7
43
12/11
-9.4
3
12/18
6.3
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Lions logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
22
8
Yards / Game
24
16
Passing Yards / Game
3
26
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1

EPA

EPA / Play
9
15
EPA / Pass
8
20
EPA / Rush
24
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
9
26
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
17
4th Down Efficiency
8
23
RZ Efficiency
17
18
Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Cowboys logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
5
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
2
20

EPA

EPA / Play
4
30
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
2
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
13
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
21
29
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
15
RZ Efficiency
6
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
1
W
W
O
10/16
3
W
W
O
10/23
3
W
W
U
10/30
-7
L
L
U
11/06
6
W
W
U
11/20
7
W
W
U
11/24
3
W
W
U
12/04
15
W
W
U
12/11
3
W
L
U
12/18
-11
L
L
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
14
W
W
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/30
6
W
W
O
11/06
25
W
W
U
11/13
5
W
W
O
11/20
10
W
W
U
11/24
5
W
L
O
12/01
2
W
L
U
12/11
-3
L
L
U
12/18
6
W
L
U