DETLions
9-5
21
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
042
DALCowboys
12-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
14
0
0
21
Cowboys
14
7
14
7
42
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
375
Total Plays
70
52
Yards / Play
4.6
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.40
Passing Yards
229
211
Comp/Att
26/46(57%)
16/21(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
10.0
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.87
Rushing Yards
90
164
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.47
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-31
-11
Sack EPA
-11.64
-2.07
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
62
47
Penalty EPA
-5.32
-4.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+187
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+67.8
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+24.4
Home QB Adjustment
+28.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
-29.8
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+28.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
8
Yards / Game
24
16
Passing Yards / Game
3
26
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1
EPA
EPA / Play
9
15
EPA / Pass
8
20
EPA / Rush
24
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
9
26
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
17
4th Down Efficiency
8
23
RZ Efficiency
17
18
Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
5
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
2
20
EPA
EPA / Play
4
30
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
2
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
13
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
21
29
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
15
RZ Efficiency
6
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Cowboys
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U