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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ cowboys week 17, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
11-4
19
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
20
DALCowboys
10-5
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
0
7
9
19
Cowboys
7
0
3
10
20

Spread

DET logo
+5

Total

UNDER
53

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
420
384
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
6.2
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.06
Passing Yards
295
323
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.11
Rushing Yards
125
61
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.96
-12.44
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-22
Sack EPA
-2.36
-3.15
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
35
34
Penalty EPA
-3.46
-3.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,647
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+54.0
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+12.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
-7.1
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
10/15
5.1
82
10/22
-3.5
26
10/30
1.1
56
11/12
6.4
88
11/19
-5.1
19
11/23
4.1
76
12/03
1.8
62
12/10
-9.4
4
12/16
8.7
96
12/24
3.0
70
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Value
Ptile
10/16
3.1
70
10/29
7.2
91
11/05
4.2
77
11/12
14.0
100
11/19
3.0
69
11/23
9.7
97
11/30
4.8
80
12/10
0.9
55
12/17
-5.0
20
12/24
1.9
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Lions logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
5
9
Yards / Game
2
7
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18

EPA

EPA / Play
8
9
EPA / Pass
5
7
EPA / Rush
11
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
17
Interceptions / Game
8
11
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
14
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
20
RZ Efficiency
2
22
Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Cowboys logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
4
23
Passing Yards / Game
15
18
Rushing Yards / Game
15
2

EPA

EPA / Play
2
23
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
7
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
27
Interceptions / Game
13
9
Fumbles / Game
4
29
Turnover EPA / Game
17
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
13
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
12
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
14
W
W
U
10/22
-32
L
L
O
10/30
12
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
W
O
11/19
5
W
L
O
11/23
-7
L
L
O
12/03
5
W
W
O
12/10
-15
L
L
U
12/16
25
W
W
O
12/24
6
W
W
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
3
W
W
U
10/29
23
W
W
O
11/05
-5
L
L
O
11/12
32
W
W
O
11/19
23
W
W
P
11/23
35
W
W
O
11/30
6
W
L
O
12/10
20
W
W
U
12/17
-21
L
L
U
12/24
-2
L
L
U