DETLions
11-4
19
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
020
DALCowboys
10-5
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
0
7
9
19
Cowboys
7
0
3
10
20
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
420
384
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
6.2
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.06
Passing Yards
295
323
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.11
Rushing Yards
125
61
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.96
-12.44
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-22
Sack EPA
-2.36
-3.15
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
35
34
Penalty EPA
-3.46
-3.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+124
Home nfelo
1,650
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+54.0
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
-7.1
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
9
Yards / Game
2
7
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18
EPA
EPA / Play
8
9
EPA / Pass
5
7
EPA / Rush
11
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
17
Interceptions / Game
8
11
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
14
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
20
RZ Efficiency
2
22
Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
4
23
Passing Yards / Game
15
18
Rushing Yards / Game
15
2
EPA
EPA / Play
2
23
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
7
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
27
Interceptions / Game
13
9
Fumbles / Game
4
29
Turnover EPA / Game
17
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
13
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
12
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cowboys
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U