DETLions
11-5
20
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
024
DALCowboys
12-4
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
14
3
3
0
20
Cowboys
0
7
7
10
24
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
315
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
5.9
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.09
Passing Yards
307
242
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.24
Rushing Yards
90
73
Rush Attempts
22
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.62
--
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-16
-51
Sack EPA
-3.52
-10.88
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
44
46
Penalty EPA
-7.61
-6.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+30.7
Home QB Adjustment
+24.1
Away QB Adjustment
-6.6
Market Regression
-41.9
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.6
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+24.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
17
21
Passing Yards / Game
7
18
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
21
21
EPA / Pass
14
19
EPA / Rush
24
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
9
12
Fumbles / Game
8
2
Turnover EPA / Game
28
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
18
RZ Efficiency
15
25
Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
3
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
15
13
Rushing Yards / Game
2
1
EPA
EPA / Play
2
5
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
8
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
11
Interceptions / Game
3
6
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
10
4th Down Efficiency
8
17
RZ Efficiency
3
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U