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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ falcons week 1, 2008

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
-
21
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
34
ATLFalcons
-
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
14
7
0
21
Falcons
21
0
10
3
34

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
308
474
Total Plays
57
56
Yards / Play
5.4
8.5
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.32
Passing Yards
246
156
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
9/13(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
12.0
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.44
Rushing Yards
62
318
Rush Attempts
21
42
Yards / Rush
3.0
7.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
4
17
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
22%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
9
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.85
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-5
Sack EPA
-3.92
-0.81
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
30
68
Penalty EPA
-5.53
-8.54

Preview data is limited for games before 2009

Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Falcons Defense
Lions logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
27
11
Yards / Game
30
24
Passing Yards / Game
17
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
24

EPA

EPA / Play
29
16
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
18
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
25
21
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
14
4th Down Efficiency
15
13
RZ Efficiency
3
15
Falcons Offense vs Lions Defense
Falcons logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
10
32
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
31
30
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32

EPA

EPA / Play
7
31
EPA / Pass
8
32
EPA / Rush
10
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
9
32
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
27
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
22
RZ Efficiency
11
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
9
W
W
P
11/04
37
W
W
P
11/11
-10
L
L
P
11/18
-6
L
L
P
11/22
-11
L
L
P
12/02
-32
L
L
P
12/09
-1
L
W
P
12/16
-37
L
L
P
12/23
5
W
L
P
12/30
-21
L
L
P
ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
-6
L
W
P
11/04
4
W
W
P
11/11
7
W
W
P
11/18
-24
L
L
P
11/22
-18
L
L
P
12/02
-12
L
L
P
12/10
-20
L
L
P
12/16
-34
L
L
P
12/23
-3
L
W
P
12/30
3
W
W
P