DETLions
3-4
31
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
81°F
10 mph
14
JAXJaguars
1-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
81°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
21
0
10
31
Jaguars
0
0
0
14
14
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
434
281
Total Plays
68
61
Yards / Play
6.4
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.36
+0.08
Passing Yards
285
217
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.53
+0.02
Rushing Yards
149
64
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.22
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
19
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
67%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.31
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
-0.66
-1.29
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
42
40
Penalty EPA
-3.33
-4.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model64.6%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,370
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+15.1
Market Regression
+4.6
Final Difference
-104.5
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
3
30
Passing Yards / Game
4
11
Rushing Yards / Game
23
30
EPA
EPA / Play
21
27
EPA / Pass
16
26
EPA / Rush
21
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
2
Interceptions / Game
22
20
Fumbles / Game
26
16
Turnover EPA / Game
2
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
28
4th Down Efficiency
24
13
RZ Efficiency
7
15
Jaguars Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
27
Yards / Game
29
12
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
16
EPA
EPA / Play
29
21
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
25
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
24
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
16
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
8
4th Down Efficiency
30
32
RZ Efficiency
27
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U