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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ jets week 4, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
2-1
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
80°F
0
17
NYJJets
1-2
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
80°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
14
0
7
24
Jets
3
0
7
7
17

Spread

DET logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
360
336
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
5.5
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.11
Passing Yards
272
204
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.14
Rushing Yards
88
132
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
40%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.16
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-21
-5
Sack EPA
-5.17
-6.47
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
33
32
Penalty EPA
-4.26
-3.13

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
-4.3
Market Regression
+22.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
Value
Ptile
11/17
0.4
52
11/24
-4.4
23
11/28
3.6
74
12/08
-5.3
18
12/16
-4.9
19
12/22
-6.1
13
12/29
-4.4
23
09/08
8.8
94
09/14
-2.5
32
09/21
-4.9
20
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Value
Ptile
11/17
-15.3
0
11/24
-10.7
3
12/01
-8.0
7
12/08
3.7
75
12/15
-3.8
26
12/22
6.5
88
12/29
4.4
81
09/07
1.1
58
09/14
-1.4
40
09/22
-1.3
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Jets Defense
Lions logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
22
24
Yards / Game
17
7
Passing Yards / Game
7
30
Rushing Yards / Game
28
5

EPA

EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
14
24
EPA / Rush
24
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
8
Interceptions / Game
9
30
Fumbles / Game
8
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
30
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
15
27
Jets Offense vs Lions Defense
Jets logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
28
3
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
3
1

EPA

EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
29
10
EPA / Rush
10
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
32
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-10
L
L
O
11/24
-3
L
L
U
11/28
30
W
W
O
12/08
-14
L
L
P
12/16
-2
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
U
12/29
-1
L
L
U
09/08
21
W
W
O
09/14
-17
L
L
U
09/21
12
W
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-23
L
L
O
11/24
-16
L
L
U
12/01
-20
L
L
U
12/08
10
W
W
O
12/15
-10
L
P
O
12/22
11
W
W
U
12/29
13
W
W
U
09/07
5
W
L
U
09/14
-7
L
P
O
09/22
-8
L
L
O