DETLions
2-1
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
80°F
017
NYJJets
1-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
80°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
14
0
7
24
Jets
3
0
7
7
17
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
336
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
5.5
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.11
Passing Yards
272
204
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.14
Rushing Yards
88
132
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
40%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.16
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-21
-5
Sack EPA
-5.17
-6.47
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
33
32
Penalty EPA
-4.26
-3.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
-4.3
Market Regression
+22.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
24
Yards / Game
17
7
Passing Yards / Game
7
30
Rushing Yards / Game
28
5
EPA
EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
14
24
EPA / Rush
24
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
8
Interceptions / Game
9
30
Fumbles / Game
8
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
30
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
15
27
Jets Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
3
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
3
1
EPA
EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
29
10
EPA / Rush
10
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
32
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
5-5
O/U