DETLions
6-7
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
38°F
13 mph
17
NYJJets
7-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
38°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
1
3
3
7
14
Jets
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
337
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
5.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
287
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
18/35(51%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.02
Rushing Yards
107
50
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.24
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-30
Sack EPA
--
-4.45
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
52
--
Penalty EPA
-4.73
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-5
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-44.8
Home QB Adjustment
-26.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.1
Market Regression
-12.1
Final Difference
16.0
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-26.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
2
Yards / Game
4
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
14
Rushing Yards / Game
11
17
EPA
EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
25
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
2
19
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
8
RZ Efficiency
4
3
Jets Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
28
Yards / Game
25
32
Passing Yards / Game
10
22
Rushing Yards / Game
25
29
EPA
EPA / Play
29
30
EPA / Pass
26
24
EPA / Rush
22
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
17
19
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
30
4th Down Efficiency
26
21
RZ Efficiency
31
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U