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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ jets week 15, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DET logo
DETLions
6-7
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
38°F
13 mph
17
NYJJets
7-6
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
38°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
1
3
3
7
14
Jets
0
10
0
7
17

Spread

DET logo
+2

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
359
337
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
5.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
287
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
18/35(51%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.02
Rushing Yards
107
50
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.24
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-30
Sack EPA
--
-4.45
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
52
--
Penalty EPA
-4.73
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model51.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-15
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-44.8
Home QB Adjustment
-26.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.1
Market Regression
-13.0
Final Difference
7.9
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
Value
Ptile
10/02
7.8
92
10/09
-4.8
19
10/23
-4.8
19
10/30
4.7
84
11/06
-1.7
41
11/13
1.4
62
11/20
-1.8
38
11/24
2.5
73
12/04
5.1
85
12/11
8.2
94
Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-26.7
Value
Ptile
12/26
4.0
80
01/02
-1.1
45
01/09
-10.8
2
10/02
-3.2
27
10/09
-1.3
43
10/16
-6.0
13
10/23
-3.8
24
10/30
-3.0
28
11/06
1.5
63
11/20
-7.3
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Jets Defense
Lions logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
5
2
Yards / Game
4
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
14
Rushing Yards / Game
11
17

EPA

EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
25
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
2
19
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
8
RZ Efficiency
4
3
Jets Offense vs Lions Defense
Jets logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
29
28
Yards / Game
25
32
Passing Yards / Game
10
22
Rushing Yards / Game
25
29

EPA

EPA / Play
29
30
EPA / Pass
26
24
EPA / Rush
22
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
17
19
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
30
4th Down Efficiency
26
21
RZ Efficiency
31
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-3
L
L
O
10/09
-29
L
L
U
10/23
-18
L
L
U
10/30
-4
L
L
O
11/06
6
W
W
U
11/13
1
W
W
O
11/20
13
W
W
O
11/24
-3
L
W
U
12/04
26
W
W
O
12/11
11
W
W
O
NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
4
W
W
O
10/09
23
W
W
O
10/16
17
W
W
U
10/23
7
W
W
U
10/30
-5
L
L
U
11/06
3
W
W
U
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/27
21
W
W
O
12/04
-5
L
L
O
12/11
-8
L
W
U