DETLions
-
13
TBD
Lambeau Field
60°F
5 mph
27
GBPackers
-
TBD
Lambeau Field
60°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
3
7
13
Packers
10
7
0
10
27
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
246
266
Total Plays
65
47
Yards / Play
3.8
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.24
Passing Yards
200
--
Comp/Att
31/39(79%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.46
Rushing Yards
46
78
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
2.1
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
25%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.83
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-25
--
Sack EPA
-8.12
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
40
40
Penalty EPA
-6.10
-3.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model50.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+41.4
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-5.5
Home QB Adjustment
-4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-3.4
Final Difference
5.6
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
J. Love
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
6
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
21
Rushing Yards / Game
6
2
EPA
EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
1
19
EPA / Rush
18
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
17
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
4
4th Down Efficiency
6
18
RZ Efficiency
4
15
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
15
Yards / Game
11
12
Passing Yards / Game
15
9
Rushing Yards / Game
14
7
EPA
EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
2
15
EPA / Rush
14
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
29
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
26
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
6
RZ Efficiency
5
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U