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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ packers week 1, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DET logo
DETLions
-
13
TBD
Lambeau Field
60°F
5 mph
27
GBPackers
-
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
60°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
3
7
13
Packers
10
7
0
10
27

Spread

GB logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
246
266
Total Plays
65
47
Yards / Play
3.8
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.24
Passing Yards
200
--
Comp/Att
31/39(79%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.46
Rushing Yards
46
78
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
2.1
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
25%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.83
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-25
--
Sack EPA
-8.12
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
40
40
Penalty EPA
-6.10
-3.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model50.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+41.4
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-5.5
Home QB Adjustment
-4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-3.4
Final Difference
5.6
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Value
Ptile
11/10
-7.6
6
11/17
13.0
99
11/24
-1.6
37
11/28
1.9
62
12/05
6.0
85
12/15
13.6
99
12/22
8.0
93
12/30
7.1
90
01/05
-1.0
42
01/18
-4.6
19
J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Value
Ptile
11/03
-1.4
38
11/17
3.9
75
11/24
-0.3
48
11/28
6.6
88
12/05
0.6
52
12/15
4.9
80
12/23
0.1
50
12/29
-2.4
32
01/05
-2.5
31
01/12
-7.7
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Lions logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
11
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
5
Rushing Yards / Game
15
15

EPA

EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
25
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
25
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
18
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
5
23
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Packers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
13
23
Yards / Game
10
18
Passing Yards / Game
16
21
Rushing Yards / Game
18
16

EPA

EPA / Play
3
12
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
21
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
16
Interceptions / Game
3
13
Fumbles / Game
15
19
Turnover EPA / Game
30
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
11
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
16
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
3
W
L
U
11/17
46
W
W
O
11/24
18
W
W
U
11/28
3
W
L
U
12/05
3
W
P
O
12/15
-6
L
L
O
12/22
17
W
W
O
12/30
6
W
W
O
01/05
22
W
W
U
01/18
-14
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
-10
L
L
U
11/17
1
W
L
U
11/24
28
W
W
O
11/28
13
W
W
U
12/05
-3
L
P
O
12/15
17
W
W
U
12/23
34
W
W
U
12/29
-2
L
L
O
01/05
-2
L
L
O
01/12
-12
L
L
U