DETLions
0-1
21
TBD
Lambeau Field
66°F
12 mph
42
GBPackers
1-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
66°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
14
0
0
7
21
Packers
3
14
11
8
36
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
307
490
Total Plays
58
67
Yards / Play
5.3
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.36
Passing Yards
218
229
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.49
Rushing Yards
89
261
Rush Attempts
21
36
Yards / Rush
4.2
7.3
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
26
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.69
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-26
-11
Sack EPA
-4.18
-2.10
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
70
60
Penalty EPA
-7.17
-5.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model66.9%
Spread Pick
Lions+6.5
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+16.0
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
+0.4
Final Difference
122.0
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
15
Yards / Game
20
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
19
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10
EPA
EPA / Play
20
17
EPA / Pass
18
11
EPA / Rush
29
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
12
23
Turnover EPA / Game
7
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
14
4th Down Efficiency
24
19
RZ Efficiency
10
13
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
24
32
Rushing Yards / Game
8
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
32
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
5
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
10
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
9
22
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U