DETLions
0-1
17
TBD
Lambeau Field
73°F
12 mph
35
GBPackers
0-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
73°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
10
0
0
17
Packers
7
7
14
7
35
Spread
-11.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
323
Total Plays
56
61
Yards / Play
6.1
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.31
Passing Yards
236
227
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
22/27(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.65
Rushing Yards
108
96
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
44%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
9
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.70
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-28
Sack EPA
-2.18
-6.11
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
78
50
Penalty EPA
-9.10
-5.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+274
Home nfelo
1,619
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+47.4
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-4.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
+23.2
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
22
8
Passing Yards / Game
25
15
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10
EPA
EPA / Play
23
22
EPA / Pass
21
7
EPA / Rush
25
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
20
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
31
23
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28
EPA
EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
7
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
6
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
18
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U