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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ packers week 2, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
0-1
17
TBD
Lambeau Field
73°F
12 mph
35
GBPackers
0-1
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
73°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
10
0
0
17
Packers
7
7
14
7
35

Spread

GB logo
-11.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
344
323
Total Plays
56
61
Yards / Play
6.1
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.31
Passing Yards
236
227
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
22/27(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.65
Rushing Yards
108
96
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
44%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
9
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.70
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-28
Sack EPA
-2.18
-6.11
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
78
50
Penalty EPA
-9.10
-5.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+270
Home nfelo
1,617
Away nfelo
1,390
Home Field
+47.5
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-4.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
+23.2
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Value
Ptile
11/01
-2.7
26
11/15
-1.6
32
11/23
8.5
93
11/29
-7.2
7
12/06
8.0
92
12/10
-0.7
40
12/20
-4.2
18
12/27
-6.1
10
01/16
-1.5
33
09/12
4.3
81
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
11/22
6.3
85
11/29
8.1
92
12/06
4.7
77
12/13
8.9
94
12/19
-3.7
20
12/27
5.0
78
01/03
7.2
89
01/16
8.1
92
01/24
1.4
53
09/12
-9.1
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Lions logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
22
8
Passing Yards / Game
25
15
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10

EPA

EPA / Play
23
22
EPA / Pass
21
7
EPA / Rush
25
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
20
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
31
23
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Packers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28

EPA

EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
7
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
6
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
18
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-14
L
L
O
11/15
3
W
W
O
11/22
-20
L
L
U
11/26
-16
L
L
O
12/06
4
W
W
O
12/13
-7
L
W
U
12/20
-21
L
L
O
12/26
-40
L
L
U
01/03
-2
L
W
O
09/12
-8
L
W
O
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-3
L
L
O
11/29
16
W
W
O
12/06
14
W
W
U
12/13
7
W
L
U
12/19
8
W
L
U
12/27
26
W
W
O
01/03
19
W
W
O
01/16
14
W
W
O
01/24
-5
L
L
O
09/12
-35
L
L
U