DETLions
1-1
27
TBD
Lambeau Field
72°F
17 mph
34
GBPackers
1-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
72°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
7
7
10
27
Packers
14
17
3
0
34
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
418
324
Total Plays
67
50
Yards / Play
6.2
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.34
Passing Yards
368
201
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.49
+0.46
Rushing Yards
50
123
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
2.2
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
57%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
33%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.92
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-4
Sack EPA
-4.36
-1.08
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
86
45
Penalty EPA
-7.55
-4.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model70.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+41.3
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-18.1
Home QB Adjustment
-5.3
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
-32.4
Final Difference
147.8
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
25
Yards / Game
24
25
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10
EPA
EPA / Play
9
31
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
24
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
25
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
17
27
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
7
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
20
EPA
EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
3
31
EPA / Rush
8
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
12
29
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
31
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
7
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U