DETLions
2-1
34
TBD
Lambeau Field
64°F
8 mph
20
GBPackers
2-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
64°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
14
13
0
7
34
Packers
3
0
8
9
20
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
401
232
Total Plays
73
55
Yards / Play
5.5
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.19
Passing Yards
190
205
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.31
Rushing Yards
211
27
Rush Attempts
43
13
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.1
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
15
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
13
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
41%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.97
-10.49
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-20
-43
Sack EPA
-3.58
-6.12
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
70
31
Penalty EPA
-7.00
-4.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model48.5%
Spread Pick
Packers+2.0
Expected Value
+0.1%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+46.2
Base HFA
+42.9
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-9.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
-4.6
Final Difference
10.7
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
3
26
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
5
23
EPA / Rush
11
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
30
Interceptions / Game
8
28
Fumbles / Game
19
12
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
28
4th Down Efficiency
13
5
RZ Efficiency
2
13
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
25
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
25
18
Rushing Yards / Game
14
2
EPA
EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
2
28
EPA / Rush
14
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
27
Interceptions / Game
14
9
Fumbles / Game
5
29
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
17
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U