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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ packers week 5, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
3-1
9
TBD
Lambeau Field
59°F
10 mph
22
GBPackers
1-2
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
59°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
0
6
9
Packers
3
3
10
6
22

Spread

GB logo
-10

Total

UNDER
53

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
286
449
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
4.4
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.24
Passing Yards
222
269
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.21
Rushing Yards
64
180
Rush Attempts
19
33
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-40
-5
Sack EPA
-6.98
-1.27
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
50
72
Penalty EPA
-7.51
-9.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model77.2%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+150
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+62.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+12.7
Market Regression
+41.1
Final Difference
212.1
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Value
Ptile
11/22
5.2
82
12/02
3.0
69
12/09
3.0
69
12/16
-7.9
6
12/22
6.0
87
12/30
3.9
75
09/08
4.4
80
09/15
5.4
84
09/22
3.7
75
09/29
2.6
68
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Value
Ptile
12/02
2.0
62
12/09
-0.8
43
12/16
5.8
86
12/23
11.9
98
12/30
6.1
88
01/05
1.4
59
01/12
4.9
81
09/08
3.6
74
09/15
12.2
98
09/22
-3.4
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Lions logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
24
Yards / Game
5
24
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
17
25

EPA

EPA / Play
19
28
EPA / Pass
12
26
EPA / Rush
25
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
31
9
Turnover EPA / Game
2
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
4
18
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Packers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
4
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
6

EPA

EPA / Play
8
12
EPA / Pass
10
19
EPA / Rush
4
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
31
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
25
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-3
L
W
O
12/02
-2
L
L
O
12/09
-7
L
L
U
12/16
-28
L
L
O
12/22
-13
L
L
U
12/30
-2
L
W
O
09/08
10
W
W
O
09/15
-4
L
L
U
09/22
7
W
W
U
09/29
8
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
9
W
W
U
12/09
7
W
W
U
12/16
8
W
W
U
12/23
48
W
W
O
12/30
-3
L
L
O
01/05
14
W
W
U
01/12
-14
L
L
O
09/08
-6
L
L
O
09/15
18
W
W
O
09/22
-4
L
L
O