DETLions
3-1
9
TBD
Lambeau Field
59°F
10 mph
22
GBPackers
1-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
59°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
0
6
9
Packers
3
3
10
6
22
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
286
449
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
4.4
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.24
Passing Yards
222
269
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.21
Rushing Yards
64
180
Rush Attempts
19
33
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-40
-5
Sack EPA
-6.98
-1.27
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
50
72
Penalty EPA
-7.51
-9.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model77.3%
Spread Pick
Lions+10.0
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+153
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+62.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+12.7
Market Regression
+41.9
Final Difference
212.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
24
Yards / Game
5
24
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
17
25
EPA
EPA / Play
19
28
EPA / Pass
12
26
EPA / Rush
25
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
31
9
Turnover EPA / Game
2
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
4
18
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
4
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
6
EPA
EPA / Play
8
12
EPA / Pass
10
19
EPA / Rush
4
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
31
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
25
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U