DETLions
2-1
22
TBD
Lambeau Field
43°F
5 mph
23
GBPackers
4-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
43°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
10
3
6
3
22
Packers
0
10
3
10
23
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
447
Total Plays
55
69
Yards / Play
5.4
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.07
Passing Yards
243
277
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.06
Rushing Yards
56
170
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
22
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
23%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+6.62
-11.13
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-6
Sack EPA
-5.41
-1.43
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
50
48
Penalty EPA
-10.07
-3.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+16.1
Base HFA
+53.9
Divisional Adj
-24.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-41.9
Surface Adj
+18.8
Time Adj
+9.7
Net QB Adjustment
-5.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
-17.0
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
12
Yards / Game
16
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
26
EPA
EPA / Play
21
18
EPA / Pass
16
8
EPA / Rush
27
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
13
4th Down Efficiency
24
15
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
26
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
13
27
Rushing Yards / Game
15
21
EPA
EPA / Play
7
23
EPA / Pass
10
26
EPA / Rush
9
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
10
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
28
4th Down Efficiency
8
14
RZ Efficiency
2
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U