DETLions
3-4
30
TBD
Lambeau Field
35°F
3 mph
17
GBPackers
4-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
35°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
3
13
30
Packers
0
3
0
14
17
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
417
311
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
6.2
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.08
Passing Yards
353
233
Comp/Att
26/33(79%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
+1.02
-0.23
Rushing Yards
64
78
Rush Attempts
33
17
Yards / Rush
1.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.50
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
19
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
62%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.54
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-12
Sack EPA
-1.35
-3.09
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
Packers+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+76.8
Base HFA
+56.3
Divisional Adj
-25.4
Home Bye Adj
+16.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-156.4
Home QB Adjustment
-166.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-27.6
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
B. Hundley
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-166.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
26
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18
EPA
EPA / Play
20
29
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
32
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
5
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
28
9
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
28
4th Down Efficiency
31
31
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
21
Yards / Game
26
27
Passing Yards / Game
17
16
Rushing Yards / Game
17
19
EPA
EPA / Play
17
4
EPA / Pass
23
11
EPA / Rush
2
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
7
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
7
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
10
21
RZ Efficiency
4
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U