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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ packers week 9, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DET logo
DETLions
3-4
30
TBD
Lambeau Field
35°F
3 mph
17
GBPackers
4-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
35°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
3
13
30
Packers
0
3
0
14
17

Spread

DET logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
417
311
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
6.2
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.08
Passing Yards
353
233
Comp/Att
26/33(79%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
+1.02
-0.23
Rushing Yards
64
78
Rush Attempts
33
17
Yards / Rush
1.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.50
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
19
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
62%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.54
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-12
Sack EPA
-1.35
-3.09
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model53.0%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+77.8
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
-25.7
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-156.4
Home QB Adjustment
-166.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-20.9
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
Value
Ptile
12/26
-4.9
16
01/01
2.3
67
01/07
-3.1
26
09/10
7.6
92
09/18
-0.3
50
09/24
0.1
53
10/01
-7.5
10
10/08
-2.5
35
10/15
-7.9
8
10/29
5.1
84
B. Hundley headshot

B. Hundley

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-166.3
Value
Ptile
10/22
-3.3
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Lions logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
26
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18

EPA

EPA / Play
20
29
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
32
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
5
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
28
9
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
28
4th Down Efficiency
31
31
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Packers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
21
21
Yards / Game
26
27
Passing Yards / Game
17
16
Rushing Yards / Game
17
19

EPA

EPA / Play
17
4
EPA / Pass
23
11
EPA / Rush
2
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
7
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
7
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
10
21
RZ Efficiency
4
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-21
L
L
O
01/01
-7
L
L
O
01/07
-20
L
L
U
09/10
12
W
W
O
09/18
14
W
W
U
09/24
-4
L
L
O
10/01
7
W
W
U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
10/15
-14
L
L
O
10/29
-5
L
L
U
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
25
W
W
O
01/15
3
W
W
O
01/22
-23
L
L
O
09/10
8
W
W
U
09/17
-11
L
L
O
09/24
3
W
L
O
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/08
4
W
W
O
10/15
-13
L
L
U
10/22
-9
L
L
U