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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ packers week 17, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DET logo
DETLions
10-5
41
TBD
Lambeau Field
31°F
20 mph
45
GBPackers
14-1
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
31°F
20 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
10
15
7
39
Packers
10
14
7
14
45

Spread

GB logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
577
550
Total Plays
77
71
Yards / Play
7.5
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.22
Passing Yards
504
469
Comp/Att
36/60(60%)
31/44(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
10.7
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.43
Rushing Yards
73
81
Rush Attempts
15
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
32
27
Passing 1st downs
27
20
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
71%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-15.92
-10.67
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-11
Sack EPA
-0.78
-7.06
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
101
78
Penalty EPA
-10.12
+1.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model62.7%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-36
Home nfelo
1,735
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-260.5
Home QB Adjustment
-229.5
Away QB Adjustment
+31.1
Market Regression
+1.1
Final Difference
-90.6
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+31.1
Value
Ptile
10/16
-0.2
50
10/23
-5.0
19
10/30
6.2
87
11/13
-7.4
8
11/20
7.8
93
11/24
1.6
63
12/04
3.6
75
12/11
-1.6
39
12/18
8.5
95
12/24
10.0
97
M. Flynn headshot

M. Flynn

Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
-229.5
Value
Ptile
12/19
0.2
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Lions logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
13

EPA

EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
7
23
EPA / Rush
14
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
27
4th Down Efficiency
6
3
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Packers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25

EPA

EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
16
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
17
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
4
3
Turnover EPA / Game
31
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
1
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-6
L
L
U
10/23
-7
L
L
U
10/30
35
W
W
O
11/13
-24
L
L
O
11/20
14
W
W
O
11/24
-12
L
L
U
12/04
-14
L
L
U
12/11
6
W
L
O
12/18
1
W
P
O
12/24
28
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
21
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
L
O
11/06
7
W
W
O
11/14
38
W
W
O
11/20
9
W
L
O
11/24
12
W
W
U
12/04
3
W
L
O
12/11
30
W
W
O
12/18
-5
L
L
U
12/25
14
W
W
O