DETLions
10-5
41
TBD
Lambeau Field
31°F
20 mph
45
GBPackers
14-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
31°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
10
15
7
39
Packers
10
14
7
14
45
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
577
550
Total Plays
77
71
Yards / Play
7.5
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.22
Passing Yards
504
469
Comp/Att
36/60(60%)
31/44(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
10.7
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.43
Rushing Yards
73
81
Rush Attempts
15
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
32
27
Passing 1st downs
27
20
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
71%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-15.92
-10.67
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-11
Sack EPA
-0.78
-7.06
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
101
78
Penalty EPA
-10.12
+1.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model62.3%
Spread Pick
Packers+6.5
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,739
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-260.5
Home QB Adjustment
-229.5
Away QB Adjustment
+31.1
Market Regression
+4.2
Final Difference
-87.5
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+31.1
M. Flynn
Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
-229.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
13
EPA
EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
7
23
EPA / Rush
14
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
27
4th Down Efficiency
6
3
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25
EPA
EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
16
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
17
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
4
3
Turnover EPA / Game
31
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
1
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U