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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ packers week 17, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
5-10
31
TBD
Lambeau Field
26°F
15 mph
0
GBPackers
6-8
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
26°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
14
3
7
31
Packers
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

DET logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
402
175
Total Plays
72
56
Yards / Play
5.6
3.1
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.40
Passing Yards
272
129
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
19/40(48%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
3.2
EPA / Pass
+0.65
-0.59
Rushing Yards
130
46
Rush Attempts
38
13
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
25
9
Passing 1st downs
16
5
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
100%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.90
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-29
Sack EPA
-0.85
-6.12
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
34
38
Penalty EPA
-4.82
-4.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+203
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,410
Home Field
+42.1
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
+27.2
Home QB Adjustment
+8.3
Away QB Adjustment
-18.9
Market Regression
-12.1
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-18.9
Value
Ptile
10/21
3.7
73
10/28
2.6
67
11/04
-9.9
3
11/11
-5.2
17
11/18
-0.3
44
11/22
-2.6
31
12/02
-5.2
17
12/09
-3.6
24
12/16
4.1
75
12/23
-4.4
21
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Value
Ptile
10/15
5.4
82
10/28
0.4
49
11/04
1.3
56
11/11
1.6
58
11/15
2.1
63
11/25
-2.9
29
12/02
2.2
64
12/09
0.3
48
12/16
-3.0
27
12/23
11.8
98

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Lions logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
23
23

EPA

EPA / Play
23
24
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
25
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
18
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
25
17
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Packers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
10
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
11

EPA

EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
2
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
19
11
RZ Efficiency
14
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
11
W
W
O
10/28
-14
L
L
U
11/04
-15
L
L
U
11/11
-12
L
L
O
11/18
1
W
W
U
11/22
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
U
12/16
-1
L
W
U
12/23
-18
L
L
U
GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
3
W
L
O
10/28
-2
L
W
U
11/04
-14
L
L
U
11/11
19
W
W
U
11/15
-3
L
P
O
11/25
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
O
12/16
-7
L
L
U
12/23
6
W
W
O