DETLions
5-10
31
TBD
Lambeau Field
26°F
15 mph
0
GBPackers
6-8
TBD
Lambeau Field
26°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
14
3
7
31
Packers
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
175
Total Plays
72
56
Yards / Play
5.6
3.1
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.40
Passing Yards
272
129
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
19/40(48%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
3.2
EPA / Pass
+0.65
-0.59
Rushing Yards
130
46
Rush Attempts
38
13
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
9
Passing 1st downs
16
5
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
100%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.90
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-29
Sack EPA
-0.85
-6.12
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
34
38
Penalty EPA
-4.82
-4.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+200
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,415
Home Field
+41.6
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+27.2
Home QB Adjustment
+8.3
Away QB Adjustment
-18.9
Market Regression
-12.1
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.9
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
23
23
EPA
EPA / Play
23
24
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
25
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
18
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
25
17
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
10
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
11
EPA
EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
2
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
19
11
RZ Efficiency
14
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Packers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U